Nifty: EOD 12.3.2012

Sometime back,my friend Shriramoka had discussed with me the 5LEMA and 5HEMA factors. While on Hourly charts(for Intra-day trades),during the current Corrective phase, I didnot find 5Hr.LEMA and 5 Hr.HEMA very useful.But on Daily charts, 5 Day LEMA and 5 Day HEMA have shown a great utility for positional trades,exemplified by the following chart where during the upmove 5day LEMA was not breached (on closing basis)and during the current downmove  5day HEMA was not breached on closing basis.

And that way,even today Nifty has closed below 5day HEMA.Which means upmove not yet confirmed.

Prior to this (rather even today--as old habbits die hard),I used only 5day & 9 day EMA and that gave equally impressive results(if not better):

And here the thumb-rule that two closings above 5day EMA confirm end of downmove and the 5/9 EMA x-over further affirms it.

And combined with EW these readings become sort of blessings from Goddess Lakshmi.

Lets go deeper into the B from 5171 upwards :
B(a)=5171-5419=248
B(b) in progress :

However,the common thing about both the probabilities is their DIRECTION IS SIMILAR( though destinations differ).
So even conservatively, i.e. going by Probability 2, sw2 would retrace 90%-138% of sw1(=5419-5327=92) giving us a target of 5410-5454.
Raghu