Was wondering whether the EOD post is needed with so many updates being there during the day.
But then decided to write one as it would sum up the various points hovering in my mind and free me by crystalizing them. :D
What's going on in my mind?
1. Tomorrow's pivot:5332----Nifty closed below it
2. 5Hr.ema 5329--- Nifty closed below it
3.5 DMA 5374 --- Nifty closed below it
All this telling downward momentum. Only saving grace is 5DMA which is still above 20DMA though
5 Hr.EMA is below 9HrEMA which is below 20HrEMA. And today's close is also below 5Hr.EMA
All pointing to downside bias.
And what the EW count says?
Two Higher Degree counts. Mentioned during the mid-day post as well---
1. Impulse over at 5629 and Corrective to it in play to retrace 50%-62% of 4531-5629 upmove;
2.Only W3 of Impulse over at 5629 and currently W4 in play as WXY.
And following my policy of going wave to wave,I am currently labeling it as W4 in play as WXY and discussing the Counts. The moment it confirms more downslide, we can switch over from W4 to deeper Corrective.
And counts inside this Y.a (5 wave form) have been:
(i)=5459-5400=59
(ii)=5400-5436=36
(iii)=5436-5352=84
(iv)=5352-5397=45
(v)=5397-5298=99(167.7%) thus doing the minimum required extension of (i)
Once this Y.a gets over Y.b upwards would start as a 3 wave form to retrace 50%-62% of Y.a
Today throughout the day,(v) of Y.a has played out and my calculation says that it would not go below 5297 and most probably now remain truncated( i.e. not go below below the low made so far) resulting in a fast & furious upmove tomorrow morning---may be even a gap-up).
Why and how? Lets take a closer look.
As mentioned in the chart,wave form not completed at 5297.8 so we had to come below again to complete this wave form( and that is why I had mentioned in the Intraday update that we shall test 5300 again--remember that time we had not formed the top of 5358.15). Now that is why I say truncation and fast upmove possible.
And,therefore my pivot for tomorrow is 5297.8 (or should I make it 5304.2?)
A tick below these levels will tell me that Y.a is not yet over.
Otherwise one can go long for playing Y.b which is likely to do a 50%-62% retracement of Y.a(=5459-5297=162) which comes to 5378-5397.
Raghu
But then decided to write one as it would sum up the various points hovering in my mind and free me by crystalizing them. :D
What's going on in my mind?
1. Tomorrow's pivot:5332----Nifty closed below it
2. 5Hr.ema 5329--- Nifty closed below it
3.5 DMA 5374 --- Nifty closed below it
All this telling downward momentum. Only saving grace is 5DMA which is still above 20DMA though
5 Hr.EMA is below 9HrEMA which is below 20HrEMA. And today's close is also below 5Hr.EMA
All pointing to downside bias.
And what the EW count says?
Two Higher Degree counts. Mentioned during the mid-day post as well---
1. Impulse over at 5629 and Corrective to it in play to retrace 50%-62% of 4531-5629 upmove;
2.Only W3 of Impulse over at 5629 and currently W4 in play as WXY.
And following my policy of going wave to wave,I am currently labeling it as W4 in play as WXY and discussing the Counts. The moment it confirms more downslide, we can switch over from W4 to deeper Corrective.
And counts inside this Y.a (5 wave form) have been:
(i)=5459-5400=59
(ii)=5400-5436=36
(iii)=5436-5352=84
(iv)=5352-5397=45
(v)=5397-5298=99(167.7%) thus doing the minimum required extension of (i)
Once this Y.a gets over Y.b upwards would start as a 3 wave form to retrace 50%-62% of Y.a
Today throughout the day,(v) of Y.a has played out and my calculation says that it would not go below 5297 and most probably now remain truncated( i.e. not go below below the low made so far) resulting in a fast & furious upmove tomorrow morning---may be even a gap-up).
Why and how? Lets take a closer look.
As mentioned in the chart,wave form not completed at 5297.8 so we had to come below again to complete this wave form( and that is why I had mentioned in the Intraday update that we shall test 5300 again--remember that time we had not formed the top of 5358.15). Now that is why I say truncation and fast upmove possible.
And,therefore my pivot for tomorrow is 5297.8 (or should I make it 5304.2?)
A tick below these levels will tell me that Y.a is not yet over.
Otherwise one can go long for playing Y.b which is likely to do a 50%-62% retracement of Y.a(=5459-5297=162) which comes to 5378-5397.
Raghu
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.