Had started the day with the following chart:
And now the minimum for the (v) has been met, one needs to be very cautious with Shorts as an abrupt upmove to retrace this set of 5 waves(5629-5171*) can take place anytime.
How to catch reversals ?:
On daily charts, Price-RSI does not reflect any negative divergence so far. And also 5 DMA is nowhere in danger of getting breached:
.png)
But on the Hour charts,the down-move looks like losing steam as Price-RSI negative divergence as well as closure above 5 Hr. ema both have occurred.
.png)
Whether the reversal building up in Hourly charts can transform into Daily charts remains to be seen,though technically speaking, higher time-frames have to be always given more weight-age.
How can EW help us here?
As mentioned in the beginning,the minimum for (v) has been done in following manner:
.png)
An analysis of sw5 of (v) , from 5382-5171 can give us some clue.
.png)
By the labels shown above , one can argue that a breach of 5244 would confirm the end of wave 5382-5171 as its (iv) would get breached. But this (iv) can also be labelled as an Expanded Flat as shown below:
.png)
And then from around 5265 ,we may see a sharp move down to sub-5171.
Now lets examine the above probablity in detail.
While a=5184-5243.55=59.55 was a clear 3 wave form, was b=5243.55-5171.6 a 3 wave form?
If yes,then above labels are valid. If no,then I would call the downmove over at 5171.6
And let this scrutiny be kept pending till Friday morning.
Happy Holi to all of you.
Raghu
And now the minimum for the (v) has been met, one needs to be very cautious with Shorts as an abrupt upmove to retrace this set of 5 waves(5629-5171*) can take place anytime.
How to catch reversals ?:
On daily charts, Price-RSI does not reflect any negative divergence so far. And also 5 DMA is nowhere in danger of getting breached:
.png)
But on the Hour charts,the down-move looks like losing steam as Price-RSI negative divergence as well as closure above 5 Hr. ema both have occurred.
.png)
How can EW help us here?
As mentioned in the beginning,the minimum for (v) has been done in following manner:
.png)
An analysis of sw5 of (v) , from 5382-5171 can give us some clue.
.png)
By the labels shown above , one can argue that a breach of 5244 would confirm the end of wave 5382-5171 as its (iv) would get breached. But this (iv) can also be labelled as an Expanded Flat as shown below:
.png)
And then from around 5265 ,we may see a sharp move down to sub-5171.
Now lets examine the above probablity in detail.
While a=5184-5243.55=59.55 was a clear 3 wave form, was b=5243.55-5171.6 a 3 wave form?
If yes,then above labels are valid. If no,then I would call the downmove over at 5171.6
And let this scrutiny be kept pending till Friday morning.
Happy Holi to all of you.
Raghu
Dear Raghuvanshiji,
ReplyDeleteHappy Holi to you. Although i don't understand EW or for that matter any other technical but it has become a habit to go through your blog daily. Good work.
Regards
Suraj
Dear Raghuji,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the EW Analysis and Wishing you and your family a very happy , joyous, colourful and splendid holiiiiii................
Kind Regards.
Sai Prashanth Hariharan