And today we hit it :
And while it feels good to mention the hits,can misses be left behind?
Definitely not. As it is the analysis of misses that would help us grow as traders. Moreover,the purpose of this EOD blog is to do post-mortem also.
Before hitting 4930,I was expecting Nifty to rise to 5077/5109. But it did only 5036.55 on the upside.
Lets see why those levels of 5077/5109 were mentioned:
And as happens so often,correctives are never that simple. The abc from 4990 actually took the following form:
And now what? While the target mentioned as minimum was met,how do we know, as my friend Shriramoka very correctly asked, that downmove is over(for this degree) and a bounce shall set in immediately----?
So lets have a look at the Counts as they stand now:
SW1=5400-5205=195
SW2=5205-5326=121
SW3=5326-- downwards Target minimum is 1.62*198= 320=5006 as a 5 wave form :
(i)=5326-5142=184
(ii)=5142-5229=87
(iii)= 5229- downwards, should ideally be taking Nifty to 4930 as a 5 wave form
5229-5121=108
5121-5159=37
5159-4990=169
4990-5065*(4990-5065-4992-5036.55-5019).
5019-4919
As is evident,minimum lenghs of SW3 and (iii) of SW3 have been played out but is there any rule or guideline in EW that mentions that now a retracement to the up would set in?
Frankly speaking, I'm not aware of any such EW rule/guideline which would confirm a bounce-up from these levels. And that brings in the importance of trendlines , momentum and other tools that specify the support levels.
Using my most primitive TA knowledge, EOD charts( and one should use weekly & monthly charts as well) indicate a good support band at 4910-4915 levels.
Supposing we do bounce back from these levels, (iv) upwards should be counted as a retracement of (iii)=5229-4919=310, likely to retrace 50% and thus test 4919+150=5069---
Raghu
raghuji,
ReplyDeletewhat wud we call correction from 4990, truncated flat/triangle.
c wave end also market at 5019 instead of 5036??
Piyush ji,
ReplyDeletec was a triangle.
length of c=4990-5037.
end of c=5019.
IMHO.
Name of corrective abc from 4990?
-- my nomenclature is as good as yours---
Raghu
dear guruji,
ReplyDeleteFirst of all , am v sorry for today's confusion @ 4940, shud have recognised 4923 as the EOD candle close... my apologies for the goof-up
Pls see the chart for nifty ji@ this link..
http://postimage.org/image/54fmdgasd/
We are very close to the last set of SUPPORTS:
S1: 4923
S2: 4868
S3:4747-4772
2. Pls see the monthly candles as well on Chartnexus when time permits.
If these go, there is nothing below until 4636 (see july '09 Monthly candle) !!
3. if you see the fall from 6339 on weekly chart, when ever the Price action breaches the Weekly PSAR, then the next week sees a further weekly fall (range varies from 75-200pts)
For now, the Weekly PSAR is @ 4860.
If Nifty breaches 4860 by tomorrow, there is a v good chance that we will it end atleast 100 pts below 4860 (i.e MIN 4760) by Next Friday i.e 25th Nov'11
For this the Weekly PSAR has to be taken out tomorrow, and then we shall see, if weekly history over the past yr repeats!!
Interesting days ahead :-)
urs
SMO
Read your post once again.
ReplyDeleteyou will find it too uni-directional.
That is not the way mkt behaves.
Hope you have not bought OTM PEs this time.
;-)
My bet is on mkt swinging in 4880-5060 zone for some time.
Best of luck.
Raghu
hahaha.. raghuji,
ReplyDeletenahi pls wait, guess the post gave wrong impression, was focussed on finding supports in that post.
am bullish since ysday, its another matter that i kept getting stopped out :-)
urs
ok raghuji,
ReplyDeleteso u labelled it as complex correction in 3.3.4
with flat 4990-5057 a, 5057-4990 b and 4990-5065 c
(whole can be W) the X zigzag 5065-4992, then Y the triangle u mentioned. length of c=4990-5037.
end of c=5019.
when i was reading beckman he mentioned that elliott made great effort in classifying and labelling correctives. so taking cue frm there i ask u.
with benefit of hindsight can we say c of triangle wave 1 and 2 of 3.3.5 wave3 3.3.5 ended
4838 and wave 4 going on to make a temporary bottom (invalidation 4990)
invalidation 5120 3.3 has not ended, invalidation
5142 3rd wave not ended invalidation 5200 fall frm 5400 is 5 wave. am i moving in right direction??
sirji hamara jo count 5328 cross hone se invalidate ho gaya to ab 6338 nov 2010 se kya hai. ending diagonal?? aur kuch bhi dimag main nahi aa raha..
sirji sw3