Above chart was posted EOD 9.11.2011 and upmove as SW2.C was expected,though a doubt was expressed as SW2.B (=5326-5212) had done more than 80% retracement of SW2.A(=5202-5326). And as SW2.A was an Impulse,SW2 was expected to fan out as a Zig-zag. But that did not happen.
-So did SW2, a corrective supposed to fan out as a 3 wave form, end as an an Impulse 5202-5326?
-It can not.
- Then what was wrong with our Count?
-Frankly speaking, I donot know.
Now that the downmove has done 5400-5142*,the EOD charts are:
Now,it remains to be seen whether this downmove from 5400 plays out as a 5 wave or a three wave form.So far it has done:
SW1=5400-52o2
SW2=5202-5326
SW3=5326-5142*
As a very important trendline support has been broken,probability of its playing out as a 5 wave form is on a higher side.
Raghu
Dear Raghuji,
ReplyDeleteanalysing Niftyji wid EW after a long time !
is the following count possible ?
w1: 5399-5207 = 192 pts
w2:
W:
A: 5207-5300 = 93 pts
B: 5300-5202 = 98 pts (B = 105.4% x A)
C: 5202-5326 = 124 pts (133.3% x A)
Dount No.1 : C has not done the "generally C does 161.8% x A in an Expanded Flat" guideline
X:
5326-5257
Dount No.2 : unable to see 3 clear subwaves
Y:
A 5257 5304 = 47
B 5304 5252 = -52 -110.6% X A
C 5252 5317 = 65 138.3% X A
Doubt no:3 : Same as Dount No.1 - C has not done the "generally C does 161.8% x A in an Expanded Flat" guideline
Then
w3: 5317-5142** = 175 pts (in play)
I dont know if these are right, just putting thoughts in writing
urs
SMO
It seems W2 missed a beat(sub-wave).
ReplyDeleteLet's not try to force our labels on the pattern.
May be copy-book perfection is a utopia--
EW may have its limitations.
More than that, it may be the limitation of practioners like me.But why abandon it? It has given best results reg mkt direction even on day-to-day basis.
Lets take it in stride and move ahead.
jee sir,
ReplyDeletereasons for not getting into Higher Degree EW counting are:-
1. I had started taking swing trades based on Higher Degree counts, & lost all of my past 3-4 months gains in just 3 trades. So it was a case of too wide an SL, and misplaced trust in accuracy of lables.
Obviously, wen it goes wrong it goes very wrong !
2. U r already doing a fantastic job with the counts, so me meddling in with thoughts will disturb ur idea-flow
I still use EW , but only for intra trades, chotte waves, sast aur mast
for slightly Higher TFs, i now feel its better to use classic TA with TLs first to guage possible direction / postion of the wave & then use EW only upon confirmation of Trend Reversal
Have had a better trading hit rate with this new approach.
Lets see, learning never ends :-)
urs
SMO