The two charts , one at the Beginning of 1.11.2011 and the second at EOD would speak more than any words.
Is Y.C , then over? The breaking below of Channel & closing below it are first indicaters. However, lets first have a look at the fall from 5400 to 5239 to gauze the form of this fall:
As is visible from the chart on the right, this fall is not a Corrective 3 wave form and looks a clear-cut 5 wave form in progress .
Even if we consider the present wave in play as sub-wave A of a 3 wave Corrective(Y.C.sw4), that infers that full Corrective ABC is likely to be much longer, and that would give to this Y.C the following:
sw1=5011-5148=137
sw2=5148-5034=114(83%)[ 5148-5034-5120-5038]
sw3=5038- 5400=362
sw4*--- by guideline of Alteration should not be very deep.
However,in the above presumtion,sw4 looks very deep and therefore it would be prudent to believe that Y.C as a 5 wave form was over at 5400 and currently a fresh downwave is in progress. Though confirmation would come only below 5148.
So this fresh downmove should be counted as
5400-5323=77
5323-5365=42
5365-5238=127(165%)
5238-5263*
5th subwave should go below 5200
Thus ideally this down-move should take us below 5200. Till then Shorts can be carried on with a SL at 5324.
Raghu
Dear Raghu ji,
ReplyDeleteCould it be possible that sw3 is not over as yet and this fall is ssw4 of sw3?
If that be so, two more visits to levels beyond previous high may be due.
Thanks.
Dear SF,
ReplyDeleteAs I have been mentioning quite often, EW must be seen alongwith Trendlines and Momentum.
In my personal experience, these two help a lot in clearing the clouds of uncertainty that always hang around the waves in form of alternate probabilities.Fact of the matter remains that pucca labels come only after completion of the waves and when he waves are in play,all labels are temporary--
To choose my labels , I rely a lot on momentum. As the downward move started from 5400 has taken the form of a motive,it shows that the momentum(the biggest hallmark of a w3)is not giving credence to the possibility mentioned by you.