Nifty EOD 9-9-2011

Y'day I wrote

Q

Now (v) to the up in play,having chalked out:
5100-5140
5140-5102
5102-5168
5168-5144
5144-5154* and likely to test 5185.

With this test of 5185,the minimum retracement condition of C=0.618*A would be satisfied (remember here A=4720-5110;B=5110-4945;C=4945-5154* and likely to test 5185) Next what?

Once 5185 is tested,I would again gear myself up for a retracement of 150 points (61.8% of 4945-5185=240) to the down. So after testing 5185, get ready for 5035(optimally).

UnQ

We didnot test 5185 as the last leg 5144-5154* of yesterday moved up to do only 5164 .But it clarified one particular aspect. As C from 4945 upwrds had to do a minimum 5186(=0.618*A) to complete the retracement ABC from 4720 upwards, it is a clear indication that this retracement is not yet over and the move from 4945-5168 has to be treated as not full C but only Ist subwave of C.Let's call it C1.

So

C1=4945-5168=223

C2=5168-downwards under play as a 3 wave form.

Is this C2 over at 5047 today.?

No, I believe it has done only A of C2 with B likely to bring it up again on Monday and then C of C2 will take it down again. So today's downmove from 5164-to 5047=117 is being seen by me as:

A of C2(a 5 wave form):

5164-5108=54

5108-5146=38

5146-5061=85

5061-5092=31

5092-5047=45

Monday may see us going up as B of C2 with targets of 5092(38.2%),5105(50%) or 5120(61.8%) and then C of C2 again to the down by 117 points (i.e. if we choose to reverse from 5092 then 4975 will be tested again.

And the wave-riders will enjoy this volatility---

:-))

Best of luck to all of you.

Raghu