Q
Also, on a higher degree
A=4720-5114=394
B=5114-4911
C=4911---in progress (currently C5 in progress) Min target: 0.618*A=244+4911=5155 is achieved but normal target of C=A=394+4911=5305 can not be totally ruled out at this stage. So till 4911 is taken out on the downside(after the completion of C5),this probability must not be forgotten.
UnQ
However,on the whole,yesterday's post was talking more of 5170+ and less of the downside witnessed today.
Lets examine what has happened:First the chart at EOD 21.9.2011(yesterday):
http://img593.imageshack.us/img593/4544/niftyeod2192011.png
And then within the C5(in progress at EOD yesterday):
http://img535.imageshack.us/img535/9939/n2192011.jpg
Now it is very clear that as support on the basis of EW, we had
5095=going below it would have meant sw4 of C5 going into sw1;
5020=it signified beginning of C5 and thus going below it would mean end of C5;
4911=it signified beginning of C and thus going below it would mean end of C.
As soon as we opened below 5095,it was clear that C5 as a normal 5 wave impulse was out but the probability of its carrying the upmove as Ending Diagonal was alive( as a diagonal allows 4th to enter Ist). Now keeping that probability in mind I felt that within C5---
sw4(a)=5168-5110=58;
sw4(b)=5110-5142.5(played out yesterday)
and sw4(c) should not exceed 1.618*sw4(a)=a.618*58=94=5048
And so when we went below 5048, it was clear that C5 was in danger and very soon 5020 was taken out.
And had we not breached 4911 today, the probability of C being still in play would have remained alive. But now that probability no longer exists and we have the following count in play:
C (on a higher degree) in play from 5944 down as a 5 wave form,having played out:
w1=5944-5329=615
w2=5329-5740 as an expanded flat;
w3=5740-4720=1020
w4=4720-5168
A=4720-5114
B=5114-4911
C=4911-5168
w5=5168 downwards started today and most likely cover(=w1) 615 points.
This W5 shall be a 5 wave form and it is most difficult to say where sw1 and sw2 of this w5 shall end.
So far:
sw1=5168-4908* where it would end I cannot say,particularly in the light of today's gap-down and momentus fall which has not made any fractals.
On charts:
http://img89.imageshack.us/img89/9492/niftyeod22920111.png
and
http://img37.imageshack.us/img37/8408/nifty22920112.png
So 4720 is going to be breached very soon.
Best of luck.
Raghu
Dear Guruji
ReplyDeleteAatmapranaam - is there a possibility that we try to look at the fractals of the W1 and extrapolate the same?
Guruji Sa-adar pranam If the total move of w5 is 616 then the sw1 should be 616 devided by 2.618 that we have breeched the moment we crossed 4934. Does it signify some thing? Now if we see PD A B and C after the end of C we are well short of A ie 2252. Does that mean that we are entering in contracting triangle and will be followed by D and E.
ReplyDeleteAgrim dhanyawad
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeleteDear UPS,
ReplyDeleteIt is not written in stone that w5 will be exactly equal to w1 or sw1(of w5)should not cross total length/2.618.
These are tentative proportions to guide us at the beginning of the wave and have to be kept in mind along with various wave-fractals as we move forward.
As far as Contracting Triangle and other possibilities are concerned, these would better be discussed as we approach the end of the current w5(of C).
Raghu
Dear Naagi,
ReplyDeleteFractals of W1?
If you are asking about W1=5944-5329 then I am counting it as:
sw1=5944-5735=209
sw2=5735-5913(as an irregular flat)wherein:
a=5735-5924=189
b=5924-5693=231(122%)
c=5693-5913=220(116% of a)
sw3=5913-5444=469
sw4=5444-5605=161 (as a zig-zag)wherein:
a=5444-5593=149
b=5593-5472=121
c=5472-5605=133
sw5=5605-5329=276
May be you are also postulating the form (and a thrilling,out of the box form for that matter) for the Corrective from 6339 downwards,that you asked me to elaborate these "simple" counts.
I'm a simple man with plain "vanila" counts. Is dukaan par to bhai yahi hai----
+++ To each his own +++++
HHHHHHH
Raghu