Hanumanji

Hanumanji
Jai Hanuman Gyan Gun Sagar Jai Kapeesh Tihu Lok Ujaagar Ram Doot Atulita Baladhaama Anjani Putra Pavanasuta Naama

Monday, September 26, 2011

Nifty EOD 26.9.2011

First of all,a glaring mistake committed yesterday:

Q
Today it seems sw1 of this W5 ended at , courtsey Shriram's posers (pl have a look at the comments) I have to make a change here, at 4830 .
sw1=5168-4830=338
sw2=4830-4930* and as this move was a clear 5 wave form so sw2 is not over as yet.
UnQ

This unequivocal categorisation of sw2=4830-4930=100 as a 5 wave form was WRONG.
And I see it today, I wonder what led me make such a categorical statement.
As it turned out sw2 had ended at 4930 and sw3 started and we could not capitalize/utilize this downmove because of incorrect reading of wave form.

The count as it stands now is:
sw1=5168-4830=338
sw2=4830-4930=100(29.5%)
sw3=4930 downwards --target 1.62*sw1=1.62*338=550=4380 in 5 waves
(i)=4930-4759=171
(ii)=4759-4868* having retraced 64% of (i) so far

See chart : http://img593.imageshack.us/img593/8764/nifty2692011.jpg

Now the question is, what are the probabilities for this sw3(ii):
One way of looking at it is:
http://img851.imageshack.us/img851/2331/nf2q.jpg

Herein
a of sw3(ii)= 4759-4845.1=86.1 a 5 wave form:
4759-4793.2=34.2
4793.2-4768.5=24.7(72%)
4768.5-4844.95=76.45(223%)
4844.95-4806.6=38.35
4806.6-4845.1=38.5

b of sw3(ii)=4845.1-4817.45=27.65(32% of a)

c of sw3(ii)=4817.45-4868=50.55 (58.71% of a) should have been minimum 61.8%
4817.45-4837.95=20.5
4837.95-4821.8=16.15
4821.8-4865.3=44.5
4865.3-4853.75=11.55
4853.75-4868=14.25

Thus there is a lacuna that in this count-- c is less than 0.618*a.

So the chances of sw3(ii) going further up are there, but it can not go above 4930 as per this count.
All shorts, therefore, must have a SL at 4931

Raghu

3 comments:

  1. pranam guruji,

    Q
    This unequivocal categorisation of sw2=4830-4930=100 as a 5 wave form was WRONG.
    UnQ

    I had msgd u on MMB saying this move was a 3 wave, but did not have conviction that sw2 had ended @ 4930, becoz time-wise sw2 was only half a day ! :-(

    Am v sorry for not raising the pt on the blog on friday, shud not have missed telling u wot was nagging in the back of my mind :-(

    Pls accept my apology

    urs
    SMO

    ReplyDelete
  2. Dear Guruji,

    Pls also check this Alt count for sw3.ii



    sw3.1 4930 4760 = -170
    sw3.2
    a 4760 4845 = 85
    b 4845 4818 =-27
    c 4818 4835** (1st sub: 4818-4860, 2nd : 4860-4835)

    T1: 4871 (for c=0.618xa)
    T2: 4903 (for c= a)

    urs
    SMO

    ReplyDelete
  3. Dear Shri,
    I had also considered this option wherein
    Q
    sw3.2
    a 4760 4845 = 85
    UnQ

    Here the problem is that this a is not a 3 wave form(as its sw3=4768.5-4844.95=76.45 becomes more than 1.61*sw1(=4759-4793.2=34.2);
    and as a 5 wave,the option mentioned by me gets preference because:
    4759-4793.2=34.2
    4793.2-4768.5=24.7
    4768.5-4817.4=48.9(143%)
    4817.4-4802.45=14.95
    4802.45-4844.95=42.5(124%)
    is less balanced that the one chosen by me.

    So fractals-wise our c as it stands ,seems like:
    4817.45-4868=50.55
    4868-4831.95*=36.05
    4831.95-up by 1.62*50.55=4914 is very likely before any downmove commences.

    Also percentage-wise c=a=86 means a target of 4903.

    Best of luck.

    Raghu

    ReplyDelete

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