First of all,a glaring mistake committed yesterday:
Q
Today it seems sw1 of this W5 ended at , courtsey Shriram's posers (pl have a look at the comments) I have to make a change here, at 4830 .sw1=5168-4830=338
sw2=4830-4930* and as this move was a clear 5 wave form so sw2 is not over as yet.
UnQ
This unequivocal categorisation of sw2=4830-4930=100 as a 5 wave form was WRONG.
And I see it today, I wonder what led me make such a categorical statement.
As it turned out sw2 had ended at 4930 and sw3 started and we could not capitalize/utilize this downmove because of incorrect reading of wave form.
The count as it stands now is:
sw1=5168-4830=338
sw2=4830-4930=100(29.5%)
sw3=4930 downwards --target 1.62*sw1=1.62*338=550=4380 in 5 waves
(i)=4930-4759=171
(ii)=4759-4868* having retraced 64% of (i) so far
See chart : http://img593.imageshack.us/img593/8764/nifty2692011.jpg
Now the question is, what are the probabilities for this sw3(ii):
One way of looking at it is:
http://img851.imageshack.us/img851/2331/nf2q.jpg
Herein
a of sw3(ii)= 4759-4845.1=86.1 a 5 wave form:
4759-4793.2=34.2
4793.2-4768.5=24.7(72%)
4768.5-4844.95=76.45(223%)
4844.95-4806.6=38.35
4806.6-4845.1=38.5
b of sw3(ii)=4845.1-4817.45=27.65(32% of a)
c of sw3(ii)=4817.45-4868=50.55 (58.71% of a) should have been minimum 61.8%
4817.45-4837.95=20.5
4837.95-4821.8=16.15
4821.8-4865.3=44.5
4865.3-4853.75=11.55
4853.75-4868=14.25
Thus there is a lacuna that in this count-- c is less than 0.618*a.
So the chances of sw3(ii) going further up are there, but it can not go above 4930 as per this count.
All shorts, therefore, must have a SL at 4931
Raghu
pranam guruji,
ReplyDeleteQ
This unequivocal categorisation of sw2=4830-4930=100 as a 5 wave form was WRONG.
UnQ
I had msgd u on MMB saying this move was a 3 wave, but did not have conviction that sw2 had ended @ 4930, becoz time-wise sw2 was only half a day ! :-(
Am v sorry for not raising the pt on the blog on friday, shud not have missed telling u wot was nagging in the back of my mind :-(
Pls accept my apology
urs
SMO
Dear Guruji,
ReplyDeletePls also check this Alt count for sw3.ii
sw3.1 4930 4760 = -170
sw3.2
a 4760 4845 = 85
b 4845 4818 =-27
c 4818 4835** (1st sub: 4818-4860, 2nd : 4860-4835)
T1: 4871 (for c=0.618xa)
T2: 4903 (for c= a)
urs
SMO
Dear Shri,
ReplyDeleteI had also considered this option wherein
Q
sw3.2
a 4760 4845 = 85
UnQ
Here the problem is that this a is not a 3 wave form(as its sw3=4768.5-4844.95=76.45 becomes more than 1.61*sw1(=4759-4793.2=34.2);
and as a 5 wave,the option mentioned by me gets preference because:
4759-4793.2=34.2
4793.2-4768.5=24.7
4768.5-4817.4=48.9(143%)
4817.4-4802.45=14.95
4802.45-4844.95=42.5(124%)
is less balanced that the one chosen by me.
So fractals-wise our c as it stands ,seems like:
4817.45-4868=50.55
4868-4831.95*=36.05
4831.95-up by 1.62*50.55=4914 is very likely before any downmove commences.
Also percentage-wise c=a=86 means a target of 4903.
Best of luck.
Raghu