Nifty EOD 13-9-2011

Q

Looking at the retracement of wave 5740-4720 upwards,I am now counting this retracement as 3 wave ABC wherein:

A=4720-5114=394

B=5114-4911=203 as an Expanded Flat wherein:

(a)=5114-4943=171

(b)=4943-5169=226(132%)

(c)=5169-4911=258(151% of a)

C=4911--upwards

Minimum target for this C=0.618*A=244=5154

Normal Target for this C=A=394=5305

For a look at the charts:

http://img18.imageshack.us/img18/7074/nf1292011.png

Now all longs should keep a Stop Loss at 4910.

UnQ

Not happy at the way today's pattern has fanned out.

Move from 4911.3-5030 was on expected lines,though I was expecting it to fill the gap, created by yesterday's gap-down opening, by going upto 5046, and labelled this 4911.3-5030=C1; Downmove from 5030 was expected to be a Corrective 3 wave form capable of retracing even 99.99% of this C1. It did retrace 99.99% but the form taken was not a 3 wave. This downmove from 5030-4911.35 can be at the best seen as C2(a) with C2 likely to be a Regular Flat wherein C2(b) will take it up to 5030 and C2(c) will bring it down again to 4911.35 but not below 4911.3. SL in this Count is at 4911 for longs.

Alternatively,we have to see today's move as a continuation of B(c) which has the probability of extending to 4895(161.8% of B(a). So here one has to put SL at 4894 for longs.

Both my Counts are Bullish as I am not convinced with the theory that Corrective ABC (retracement of 5740-4720) was over at 5169 with a truncated C. So I am retaining my longs with a strict SL at 4894.

Best of luck everyone.

Raghu