Nifty EOD 20-9-2011

Yesterday I wrote:

Q

Is the Upmove Over?

As you all know,I am counting this upmove from 4720 as retracement ABC wherein

A=4720-5114

B=5114-4911

C=4911 upwards as a 5 wave form:

C1=4911-5030

C2=5030-4968

C3=4968-5143

C4=5143-5019.35* Now this C4 has entered into C1 territory and thus put a question mark over the upmove.

EOD charts---pl see link---donot indicate overlapping of C4 and C1 on closing basis(and intraday overlapping is allowed) so lets wait another day to see how the final pattern emerges--

http://img508.imageshack.us/img508/3774/nifty1992011.png

UnQ

So confident I was about the upmove not being over as yet that even mentioned the probability of C being an Ending Diagonal (thanks to Laluji and Shriji,opened the EW manual again and found that though a Leading Diagonal could be 5*3*5*3*5, an Ending Diagonal has to be only 3*3*3*3*3, thus C's probability of being an ED was ruled out as C1 was clearly a 5 wave form)

But let me mention why am I confident of C going past 5170--

All those who are counting C as being over at 5169, are basing their counts on either of two factors:

1. Truncated C(where 5th wave of C failed to go past 3rd):

A=4720-5114=394

B=5114-4943=171

C=4943-5169=226

Now this C is only 57.3% of A , so the basic miminum required for a 3 wave ABC(C=min. o.618*A) was not fulfilled so I could not get convinced by this Count. And counted these waves as :

A=4720-5114=394

B(a)=5114-4943=171

B(b)=4943-5169=226(132% of B(a);

2. There are a few of my friends,who argued that A was not 4720-5114 and the spike to 5114 was a "bogus" which I had to reject outrightly.

Now my friend Shri has argued that C2 as counted by me , was non-existent as its fractals are invisible. All I can say is that this is the sheer beauty & romance of counting Nifty where we have to cope up with various gap ups/downs and do counting based on percentages and without fractals and that is why sometimes it takes a day or two for the clear pattern to emerge.

My Guru Baluji, writing here as Waverider, suggested to me that as C3=4968-5143=175 has done only 147% of C1=4911-5030=119 so it may be seen as still continuing and the move from 5143-5020 be seen as part of C3 only(and not as C4) ----well that probability is definitely ON ---

So our C to the up is ON,and it remains to be seen whether it be labelled C3 or C5 but 5170 very clearly going to be crossed.

Now the question is what are the possible targets for this upmove?

Retaining my Counts , I would say, C5 is in play as a 5 wave and has today played out:

sw1=5020-5095=75

sw2=5095-5071=24

sw3=5071-5150* and likely to test 1.62*sw1=5192

Thus Ist target would be 5192---

And lets remember, Minimum target for this C is 0.618*A=244+4911=5155

For a visual understanding of Charts,following link may be useful:

http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/665/n2092011.jpg

Comparatively longer post--- hope all of you would have found it useful.

Raghu