Nifty EOD 30.9.2011

Yesterday I wrote:

Q

Thus both the Probablities ( one being the start of W5 and the other being SW2 of C) point to an immediate downmove and so tomorrow looks almost certain to end in red.

UnQ

And it proceed on the same lines.

This downmove so far has taken the following form:

SW1=5035-4953

SW2.A=4953-5026(as a 5 wave form)

SW2.B=5026-4924(as a 3 wave form)

a=5026-4968

b=4968-4994

c=4994-4924

SW2.C to the up is pending but should not go above 5035

For those on the long side should keep a SL at 4910

For shorting best levels would be above 5025 with a SL at 5036

On charts this count can be seen as:

http://img840.imageshack.us/img840/599/nifty3092011.jpg

Raghu

Nifty EOD 29.9.2011

Yesterday I wrote

Q

A=4720-5169=449
B(a)=5169-4911=258
B(b)=4911-5168=257
B(c)=5168-4760=409(158% of B(a)
C in progress upwards.
On chart it can be seen as:
http://img832.imageshack.us/img832/4355/nifty2892011.jpg

Now this C has to be a 5 wave form with minimum target of C=0.618*A=278=5038
And its progress so far can be seen as:
http://img101.imageshack.us/img101/8888/nifty2dt2892011.jpg

UnQ

And the C continuing its journey finished the sw4 (which was incomplete yesterday) and came very close to ending sw5, testing 5034 but stopping short of 5038.

This C can be seen in charts as:

http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/9563/nifty2992011.jpg

Now what lies ahead? Has W4 ended and are we on the brink of beginning of W5?

Although C=minimum 0.618*A has been nearly accomplished,it would not be correct to say that C has ended. Normally C= A ( and that gives a target of 5208 to C) and that keeps the Probability of going further up very much open.

However,even for that Probability to become a reality we have to consider this set of 5 subwaves as SW1 of C and go down as SW2 of C.

Thus both the Probablities ( one being the start of W5 and the other being SW2 of C) point to an immediate downmove and so tomorrow looks almost certain to end in red.

As we proceed further, the wave forms will guide us to say whether we are in W5 or SW2 of C.

Keep watching and ,if possible, keep contributing as well.

Raghu

Nifty : How to begin 29-9-2011

Dear friends,
Was not able to post y'day night because of some technical snags.
Had a fresh look at various probabilities after the previous Count got invalidated
My Preferred Count now is the one which has been inspired by my Friend Philosopher & Guide Sh RCG and appears at weavologic. Though I donot agree with his labelling of subwaves of A(no offence intended) but overall I believe that we are still in W4 having chalked out
A=4720-5169=449
B(a)=5169-4911=258
B(b)=4911-5168=257
B(c)=5168-4760=409(158% of B(a)
C in progress upwards.
On chart it can be seen as:
http://img832.imageshack.us/img832/4355/nifty2892011.jpg

Now this C has to be a 5 wave form with minimum target of C=0.618*A=278=5038
And its progress so far can be seen as:
http://img101.imageshack.us/img101/8888/nifty2dt2892011.jpg

Best of luck for today's trades.

Raghu

Nifty --- How to start 28.9.2011

Dear friends,

While I would like to wait for one more day to come out with fresh EW counts(as I donot deem it necessary to put forward a fresh alternative till pattern becomes clearer),I would be watching following levels closely:

Nifty-5003

Infosys-2488

SBI -2024

IDFC- 116.15

Raghu

Nifty EOD 27-9-2011== The First Impression

Yesterday'I wrote:

Q

The count as it stands now is:

sw1=5168-4830=338

sw2=4830-4930=100(29.5%)

sw3=4930 downwards --target 1.62*sw1=1.62*338=550=4380 in 5 waves

(i)=4930-4759=171

(ii)=4759-4868* having retraced 64% of (i) so far

Now the question is, what are the probabilities for this sw3(ii):

the chances of sw3(ii) going further up are there, but it can not go above 4930 as per this count.

All shorts, therefore, must have a SL at 4931

UnQ

Clearly this count has become invalid as (ii) cannot retrace more than 100% of (i).

And we have now to look for an alternative count. And for that lets go one degree higher----

C (on a higher degree) in play from 5944 down as a 5 wave form,having played out:

w1=5944-5329=615

w2=5329-5740 as an expanded flat;

w3=5740-4720=1020

w4=4720-5168

w5=5168 downwards started on 22-9-2011 and most likely cover(=w1) 615 points.

And this w5 which was to cover 615 points in 5 waves has already covered 409 points(5168-4759) and we are yet struggling to find valid fractals for it.

Lets take various probabilities one by one( not necessarily in order of preference):

Probability 1: w4 did not end at 5168

If so then A of w4=4720-5168(448) a 3 wave form

B=5168-4759=409 having fractals

sw1=5168-4830=338

sw2=4830-4930=100

sw3=4930-4759=171(50%) neither qualifies as a 5 wave(to consider it as B(a) nor as 3 wave

so this probability is ruled out.

Probability 2 : W5 is over at 4759

As 5168-4759=409 is more than 0.618*w1(=380) so this probability also comes in play---w5 ending above w3.

Least probable because w3(=1020) was only 166% of w1(=615) and w5 truncations occur mostly when w3 is hugely extended over w1.

Probability 3:

w5 in play and its sw1 instead of ending at 4830 has gone upto 4759 thus making

sw1=5168-4759=409 and currently sw2 to the up in progress.

For a wave at whose starting the tentative target was a length of 615, it is very difficult to digest that its sw1=409 as that gives a tentative length of 1000+ to the full wave.

Probability 4: w3 did not end at 4720 and the move from 4720-5168 and 5168 - 4759 be seen as continuation of w3.

I request my fellow EW enthusiasts to contribute to these probabilities---

Raghu

Nifty EOD 26.9.2011

First of all,a glaring mistake committed yesterday:

Q

Today it seems sw1 of this W5 ended at , courtsey Shriram's posers (pl have a look at the comments) I have to make a change here, at 4830 .

sw1=5168-4830=338

sw2=4830-4930* and as this move was a clear 5 wave form so sw2 is not over as yet.

UnQ

This unequivocal categorisation of sw2=4830-4930=100 as a 5 wave form was WRONG.

And I see it today, I wonder what led me make such a categorical statement.

As it turned out sw2 had ended at 4930 and sw3 started and we could not capitalize/utilize this downmove because of incorrect reading of wave form.

The count as it stands now is:

sw1=5168-4830=338

sw2=4830-4930=100(29.5%)

sw3=4930 downwards --target 1.62*sw1=1.62*338=550=4380 in 5 waves

(i)=4930-4759=171

(ii)=4759-4868* having retraced 64% of (i) so far

See chart : http://img593.imageshack.us/img593/8764/nifty2692011.jpg

Now the question is, what are the probabilities for this sw3(ii):

One way of looking at it is:

http://img851.imageshack.us/img851/2331/nf2q.jpg

Herein

a of sw3(ii)= 4759-4845.1=86.1 a 5 wave form:

4759-4793.2=34.2

4793.2-4768.5=24.7(72%)

4768.5-4844.95=76.45(223%)

4844.95-4806.6=38.35

4806.6-4845.1=38.5

b of sw3(ii)=4845.1-4817.45=27.65(32% of a)

c of sw3(ii)=4817.45-4868=50.55 (58.71% of a) should have been minimum 61.8%

4817.45-4837.95=20.5

4837.95-4821.8=16.15

4821.8-4865.3=44.5

4865.3-4853.75=11.55

4853.75-4868=14.25

Thus there is a lacuna that in this count-- c is less than 0.618*a.

So the chances of sw3(ii) going further up are there, but it can not go above 4930 as per this count.

All shorts, therefore, must have a SL at 4931

Raghu

Nifty EOD 23.9.2011-Updated

From yesterday

Q

This W5 shall be a 5 wave form and it is most difficult to say where sw1 and sw2 of this w5 shall end.

So far:

sw1=5168-4908* where it would end I cannot say,particularly in the light of today's gap-down and momentus fall which has not made any fractals.

UnQ

Today it seems sw1 of this W5 ended at , courtsey Shriram's posers (pl have a look at the comments) I have to make a change here, at 4830 .

sw1=5168-4830=338

sw2=4830-4930* and as this move was a clear 5 wave form so sw2 is not over as yet.And we can label its discernible fractals as:

a=4830-4930=100

b=4930-4857*

This b can do upto 138.2% of a (if sw2 chooses to make an Expanded Flat)and then c to the up;

or

can turn back as c to the up from here itself(if sw2 chooses to do a zig-zag).

However,in both the case , a visit above 4930 is most probable and then a turn around to the downmove as the most fast & furious sw3.

And if the length of this sw1 is any indication then we are on for quite a long W5,may be longer tha the expected 615 points--

Have a nice week-end.

Raghu

Nifty EOD 22-9-2011

As usual,lets start from yesterday's conclusion:

Q

Also, on a higher degree

A=4720-5114=394

B=5114-4911

C=4911---in progress (currently C5 in progress) Min target: 0.618*A=244+4911=5155 is achieved but normal target of C=A=394+4911=5305 can not be totally ruled out at this stage. So till 4911 is taken out on the downside(after the completion of C5),this probability must not be forgotten.

UnQ

However,on the whole,yesterday's post was talking more of 5170+ and less of the downside witnessed today.

Lets examine what has happened:First the chart at EOD 21.9.2011(yesterday):

http://img593.imageshack.us/img593/4544/niftyeod2192011.png

And then within the C5(in progress at EOD yesterday):

http://img535.imageshack.us/img535/9939/n2192011.jpg

Now it is very clear that as support on the basis of EW, we had

5095=going below it would have meant sw4 of C5 going into sw1;

5020=it signified beginning of C5 and thus going below it would mean end of C5;

4911=it signified beginning of C and thus going below it would mean end of C.

As soon as we opened below 5095,it was clear that C5 as a normal 5 wave impulse was out but the probability of its carrying the upmove as Ending Diagonal was alive( as a diagonal allows 4th to enter Ist). Now keeping that probability in mind I felt that within C5---

sw4(a)=5168-5110=58;

sw4(b)=5110-5142.5(played out yesterday)

and sw4(c) should not exceed 1.618*sw4(a)=a.618*58=94=5048

And so when we went below 5048, it was clear that C5 was in danger and very soon 5020 was taken out.

And had we not breached 4911 today, the probability of C being still in play would have remained alive. But now that probability no longer exists and we have the following count in play:

C (on a higher degree) in play from 5944 down as a 5 wave form,having played out:

w1=5944-5329=615

w2=5329-5740 as an expanded flat;

w3=5740-4720=1020

w4=4720-5168

A=4720-5114

B=5114-4911

C=4911-5168

w5=5168 downwards started today and most likely cover(=w1) 615 points.

This W5 shall be a 5 wave form and it is most difficult to say where sw1 and sw2 of this w5 shall end.

So far:

sw1=5168-4908* where it would end I cannot say,particularly in the light of today's gap-down and momentus fall which has not made any fractals.

On charts:

http://img89.imageshack.us/img89/9492/niftyeod22920111.png

and

http://img37.imageshack.us/img37/8408/nifty22920112.png

So 4720 is going to be breached very soon.

Best of luck.

Raghu

Nifty EOD 21-9-2011

Continuing from yesterday:

Q

Retaining my Counts , I would say, C5 is in play as a 5 wave and has today played out:

sw1=5020-5095=75

sw2=5095-5071=24

sw3=5071-5150* and likely to test 1.62*sw1=5192

Thus Ist target would be 5192---

And lets remember, Minimum target for this C is 0.618*A=244+4911=5155

UnQ

Listless day. Continued to complete the pattern which had become clear yesterday. Link to charts:

http://img535.imageshack.us/img535/9939/n2192011.jpg

Thus we have:

sw1=5020-5095=75

sw2=5095-5071=24

sw3=5071-5168=97

sw4=5168-5110=58

sw5=5110-5142*

Now one point to see is where this sw5 is likely to end as sw3 is only 130% of sw1. Although 5170+ levels would make this wave a "good looking" and logical,we may see an extended sw5 and,therefore, 5230 may well be on the cards.

Also, on a higher degree

A=4720-5114=394

B=5114-4911

C=4911---in progress (currently C5 in progress) Min target: 0.618*A=244+4911=5155 is achieved but normal target of C=A=394+4911=5305 can not be totally ruled out at this stage. So till 4911 is taken out on the downside(after the completion of C5),this probability must not be forgotten.

Raghu

Nifty EOD 20-9-2011

Yesterday I wrote:

Q

Is the Upmove Over?

As you all know,I am counting this upmove from 4720 as retracement ABC wherein

A=4720-5114

B=5114-4911

C=4911 upwards as a 5 wave form:

C1=4911-5030

C2=5030-4968

C3=4968-5143

C4=5143-5019.35* Now this C4 has entered into C1 territory and thus put a question mark over the upmove.

EOD charts---pl see link---donot indicate overlapping of C4 and C1 on closing basis(and intraday overlapping is allowed) so lets wait another day to see how the final pattern emerges--

http://img508.imageshack.us/img508/3774/nifty1992011.png

UnQ

So confident I was about the upmove not being over as yet that even mentioned the probability of C being an Ending Diagonal (thanks to Laluji and Shriji,opened the EW manual again and found that though a Leading Diagonal could be 5*3*5*3*5, an Ending Diagonal has to be only 3*3*3*3*3, thus C's probability of being an ED was ruled out as C1 was clearly a 5 wave form)

But let me mention why am I confident of C going past 5170--

All those who are counting C as being over at 5169, are basing their counts on either of two factors:

1. Truncated C(where 5th wave of C failed to go past 3rd):

A=4720-5114=394

B=5114-4943=171

C=4943-5169=226

Now this C is only 57.3% of A , so the basic miminum required for a 3 wave ABC(C=min. o.618*A) was not fulfilled so I could not get convinced by this Count. And counted these waves as :

A=4720-5114=394

B(a)=5114-4943=171

B(b)=4943-5169=226(132% of B(a);

2. There are a few of my friends,who argued that A was not 4720-5114 and the spike to 5114 was a "bogus" which I had to reject outrightly.

Now my friend Shri has argued that C2 as counted by me , was non-existent as its fractals are invisible. All I can say is that this is the sheer beauty & romance of counting Nifty where we have to cope up with various gap ups/downs and do counting based on percentages and without fractals and that is why sometimes it takes a day or two for the clear pattern to emerge.

My Guru Baluji, writing here as Waverider, suggested to me that as C3=4968-5143=175 has done only 147% of C1=4911-5030=119 so it may be seen as still continuing and the move from 5143-5020 be seen as part of C3 only(and not as C4) ----well that probability is definitely ON ---

So our C to the up is ON,and it remains to be seen whether it be labelled C3 or C5 but 5170 very clearly going to be crossed.

Now the question is what are the possible targets for this upmove?

Retaining my Counts , I would say, C5 is in play as a 5 wave and has today played out:

sw1=5020-5095=75

sw2=5095-5071=24

sw3=5071-5150* and likely to test 1.62*sw1=5192

Thus Ist target would be 5192---

And lets remember, Minimum target for this C is 0.618*A=244+4911=5155

For a visual understanding of Charts,following link may be useful:

http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/665/n2092011.jpg

Comparatively longer post--- hope all of you would have found it useful.

Raghu

Nifty EOD 19-9-2011

Is the Upmove Over?

As you all know,I am counting this upmove from 4720 as retracement ABC wherein

A=4720-5114

B=5114-4911

C=4911 upwards as a 5 wave form:

C1=4911-5030

C2=5030-4968

C3=4968-5143

C4=5143-5019.35* Now this C4 has entered into C1 territory and thus put a question mark over the upmove. But the possibility of C being an Ending Diagonal is very much open and thus the last arm of C --as C5-- can very well take us above 5170.

And to top it all, EOD charts---pl see link---donot indicate overlapping of C4 and C1 on closing basis(and intraday overlapping is allowed) so lets wait another day to see how the final pattern emerges--

http://img508.imageshack.us/img508/3774/nifty1992011.png

All longs must have a SL at 4967

Raghu

Nifty EOD 16-9-2011

Y'day I wrote:

Q

Now my count stands at:

C1=4911-5030

C2= An irregular flat---

(a)=5030-4911

(b)=4911-5062

(c)=5062-4968

May not look very convincing,as usually when b>105%a, c goes more than a, but is very much within the guidelines.

C3 seems to have started from 4968 and likely to go to 5160+ levels.

UnQ

Today C3 continued its upward move and at EOD our count stands at:

C3=4968-5143

C4 in play as 3 waves

a=5143-5068

b=5068-5128

c=5128-5074* minimum requirement of c=0.618*a has been fulfilled

After completion of this C4 ,C5 upwards shall come into play and is likely to take us above 5170.

Plain Vanila Counts---HHHHH

Raghu

Nifty EOD 15-9-2011

Q

C= 4911---upwards in play as a 5 wave--- C1,C2---

with min target=0.618*A=243=5154; Normal Target C=A=394=5305

This C has so far played:

C1=4911.3-5030

C2---in play as 3 wave as a Regular Flat:

C2(a)=5030-4911.35

C2(b)= 4911.35-5024

C2(c)--- likely to play out tomorrow from 5024-4911.5

So I have gone Short with SL at 5031

UnQ

Opened at 5062(at the end of pre-open session) so there was no chance to put SL. And as I was not expecting it, got stumped for a while. But before the regular market opened,was able to calculate that in a Flat , wave B is capable of doing 1.382 of wave A. In the present case,

C2(a)=5030-4911.35=118.65 so C2(b) was quite capable of doing 164=5075. So as soon as the market opened put a SL at 5076 and calculated that now that the possibility of Regular Flat is ruled out, what are the probabilities of down move. As minimum C=0.618*A, in this case--- C2(c) had a minimum target of 0.618*118.65=73.5=4988 and maximum target of 1.618*118.65=192. Squared off all my shorts as soon as Nifty hit 4988.

Now my count stands at:

C1=4911-5030

C2= An irregular flat---

(a)=5030-4911

(b)=4911-5062

(c)=5062-4968

May not look very convincing,as usually when b>105%a, c goes more than a, but is very much within the guidelines.

C3 seems to have started from 4968 and likely to go to 5160+ levels.

And today I found posers from my esteemed Guru WW on this blog--- writing as Waverider.His presence here is a good omen for all of us.

Raghu

Nifty EOD 14-9-2012

Continuing from yesterday:

Retracement for W3=5740-4720 in play as W4---shall fan out as ABC of which:

A=4720-5114=394

B=5114-4911 as an Expanded Flat

C= 4911---upwards in play as a 5 wave--- C1,C2---

with min target=0.618*A=243=5154; Normal Target C=A=394=5305

This C has so far played:

C1=4911.3-5030

C2---in play as 3 wave as a Regular Flat:

C2(a)=5030-4911.35

C2(b)= 4911.35-5024

C2(c)--- likely to play out tomorrow from 5024-4911.5

So I have gone Short with SL at 5031

Best of luck.

Raghu

Nifty EOD 13-9-2011

Q

Looking at the retracement of wave 5740-4720 upwards,I am now counting this retracement as 3 wave ABC wherein:

A=4720-5114=394

B=5114-4911=203 as an Expanded Flat wherein:

(a)=5114-4943=171

(b)=4943-5169=226(132%)

(c)=5169-4911=258(151% of a)

C=4911--upwards

Minimum target for this C=0.618*A=244=5154

Normal Target for this C=A=394=5305

For a look at the charts:

http://img18.imageshack.us/img18/7074/nf1292011.png

Now all longs should keep a Stop Loss at 4910.

UnQ

Not happy at the way today's pattern has fanned out.

Move from 4911.3-5030 was on expected lines,though I was expecting it to fill the gap, created by yesterday's gap-down opening, by going upto 5046, and labelled this 4911.3-5030=C1; Downmove from 5030 was expected to be a Corrective 3 wave form capable of retracing even 99.99% of this C1. It did retrace 99.99% but the form taken was not a 3 wave. This downmove from 5030-4911.35 can be at the best seen as C2(a) with C2 likely to be a Regular Flat wherein C2(b) will take it up to 5030 and C2(c) will bring it down again to 4911.35 but not below 4911.3. SL in this Count is at 4911 for longs.

Alternatively,we have to see today's move as a continuation of B(c) which has the probability of extending to 4895(161.8% of B(a). So here one has to put SL at 4894 for longs.

Both my Counts are Bullish as I am not convinced with the theory that Corrective ABC (retracement of 5740-4720) was over at 5169 with a truncated C. So I am retaining my longs with a strict SL at 4894.

Best of luck everyone.

Raghu

Nifty EOD 12-9-2011

Another day of furious gap-down and further fall.Though I was able to get the direction(downwards) correct,I had counted this fall as C2 which was proved INCORRECT.

Looking at the retracement of wave 5740-4720 upwards,I am now counting this retracement as 3 wave ABC wherein:

A=4720-5114=394

B=5114-4911=203 as an Expanded Flat wherein:

(a)=5114-4943=171

(b)=4943-5169=226(132%)

(c)=5169-4911=258(151% of a)

C=4911--upwards

Minimum target for this C=0.618*A=244=5154

Normal Target for this C=A=394=5305

For a look at the charts:

http://img18.imageshack.us/img18/7074/nf1292011.png

Now all longs should keep a Stop Loss at 4910.

Best of luck.

Raghu

Nifty EOD 9-9-2011

Y'day I wrote

Q

Now (v) to the up in play,having chalked out:
5100-5140
5140-5102
5102-5168
5168-5144
5144-5154* and likely to test 5185.

With this test of 5185,the minimum retracement condition of C=0.618*A would be satisfied (remember here A=4720-5110;B=5110-4945;C=4945-5154* and likely to test 5185) Next what?

Once 5185 is tested,I would again gear myself up for a retracement of 150 points (61.8% of 4945-5185=240) to the down. So after testing 5185, get ready for 5035(optimally).

UnQ

We didnot test 5185 as the last leg 5144-5154* of yesterday moved up to do only 5164 .But it clarified one particular aspect. As C from 4945 upwrds had to do a minimum 5186(=0.618*A) to complete the retracement ABC from 4720 upwards, it is a clear indication that this retracement is not yet over and the move from 4945-5168 has to be treated as not full C but only Ist subwave of C.Let's call it C1.

So

C1=4945-5168=223

C2=5168-downwards under play as a 3 wave form.

Is this C2 over at 5047 today.?

No, I believe it has done only A of C2 with B likely to bring it up again on Monday and then C of C2 will take it down again. So today's downmove from 5164-to 5047=117 is being seen by me as:

A of C2(a 5 wave form):

5164-5108=54

5108-5146=38

5146-5061=85

5061-5092=31

5092-5047=45

Monday may see us going up as B of C2 with targets of 5092(38.2%),5105(50%) or 5120(61.8%) and then C of C2 again to the down by 117 points (i.e. if we choose to reverse from 5092 then 4975 will be tested again.

And the wave-riders will enjoy this volatility---

:-))

Best of luck to all of you.

Raghu

Nifty EOD 8-9-2011

Lets start again from yesterday's conclusion:
Q

(iv)=5155-5116* in play and most likely to retrace 61.8% of (iii) that is go down to 5070

And then a trip above as (v) to test 5185

UnQ

Instead of going down to 5070(61.8% retracement),it decided to move up from 5100 itself(39.8%) and (iv) played out as:
a=5155-5116
b=5116-5141
c=5141-5100

Now (v) to the up in play,having chalked out:
5100-5140
5140-5102
5102-5168
5168-5144
5144-5154* and likely to test 5185.

With this test of 5185,the minimum retracement condition of C=0.618*A would be satisfied (remember here A=4720-5110;B=5110-4945;C=4945-5154* and likely to test 5185) Next what?
Ideally C=A and that keeps the possibility of C moving upto 5325-5330 open.But for even that to happen,the C played thus far as a set of 5 subwaves(4945-5154*)has to be retraced and the most likely retracement would be again 61.8%.
So once 5185 is tested,I would again gear myself up for a retracement of 150 points (61.8% of 4945-5185=240) to the down. So after testing 5185, get ready for 5035(optimally).

Raghu

Nifty EOD 7-9-2011

Continuing from yesterday:

Q

W4 in progress as a three wave form- ABC-of which

A=4720-5110=390

B=5110-4945=165(42%)

C=4945 upwards in play minimum target is 0.618*390=5186 and optimum target is=5325

This C would fan out as a 5 wave form.

So from now on, till the abovementioned target is achieved,LONG IS THE WAY TO START A TRADE.

UnQ

As expected,Nifty continued its upward trajectory and tested 5155.Now we must have a look at the fractals that the C under play has chalked out so far:

And after deliberating a lot and considering various options, believe that the Count below is the most plausible:

(i)=4945-5039=94

4945-4966=21

4966-4952=14

4952-5000=48

5000-4977=23

4977-5039=62

(ii)=5039-5017=22

(iii)=5017-5155=138

5017-5067=50

5067-5052=15

5052-5141=89

5141-5120=21

5120-5155=35

(iv)=5155-5116* in play and most likely to retrace 61.8% of (iii) that is go down to 5070

And then a trip above as (v) to test 5185

This is how I perceive the current C of the retracement from 4720 upwards. This C can be seen in Charts as per link below:

http://img854.imageshack.us/img854/8454/nifty792011.jpg

Raghu

Nifty EOD 6-9-2011

As usual,let me start from yesterday's conclusion:

Q

Till now this B seems to have done its B(a)=5110-5007=103 and B(b) seems to have been in play throughout today. Whether this B(b) is doing a DZZ or a simple abc is not clear as yet but as soon as it gets over, B (c) is likely to bring it below 4950.

More than this,I am not able to say---

UnQ

And so it happened, we came below 4950 as B(c) and then shot up again as C of the retracement from 4720 upwards.

Today,another Labelling issue has got sorted. This retracement from 4720 upwards can now be very safely labelled as the retracement of wave 5740-4720 thus making our Count as:

Wave C (of higher degree) from 5944 downwards--5 wave form

W1=5944-5329=615

W2=5329-5740=411

W3=5740-4720=1020

W4 in progress as a three wave form- ABC-of which

A=4720-5110=390

B=5110-4945=165(42%)

C=4945 upwards in play minimum target is 0.618*390=5186 and optimum target is=5325

This C would fan out as a 5 wave form.

So from now on, till the abovementioned target is achieved,LONG IS THE WAY TO START A TRADE.

Raghu

Nifty EOD 5-9-2011

Before moving to EW Counts,I wish to place before all of you two quotes:

Q1: P21, EW Principle by Frost & Prechter:

"Sometimes the market appears to reflect outside conditions and events,but at others it is entirely detached from what most people assume are causal conditions.The reason is that the market has a law of its own.It is not propelled by the external causality to which one becomes accustomed in the everyday experiences of life. The path of prices is NOT a product of news.Nor is the market the cyclically rhythmic machine that some declare it to be. Its movement reflects a repetition of forms that is independent both of presumed causal events and of periodicity."

I have produced the above quote from my EW Manual as I find it most appropriate in today's context,when most of the global markets were melting down but Nifty showed great resilience.

And my second quote is about wave B: p81:

"B waves are phonies.They are sucker plays,bull traps---expressions of dumb institutional complacency---"

When so much was happening around us,Nifty got entangled in the B wave and it was for everyone to say "there is something wrong with this market"(p.81)

Now continuing from yesterday's Counts, the retracement ABC from 4720 upwards, had completed its A=4720-5110=390 and the form & depth of B,currently in play,will decide whether this retracement is a retracement of 5702-4720 or is a retracement of higher degree 5740-4720.

Till now this B seems to have done its B(a)=5110-5007=103 and B(b) seems to have been in play throughout today. Whether this B(b) is doing a DZZ or a simple abc is not clear as yet but as soon as it gets over, B (c) is likely to bring it below 4950.

More than this,I am not able to say--- so keeping my fingers crossed as far as the form of this B is concerned.

Raghu

Nifty EOD 2-9-2011

So we have retraced from 4720 to 5110=390 points.And as I am treating it as retracement of wave 5702-4720, it has already retraced 39.7%. And as per rule of alteration,this retracement was expected to be 38.2%(pl refer to previous posts for details)--so is the retracement over?

Hmmmm-- I donot think so .

Based upon the Theory of Alternation,I believe this retracement had a likely target of 38.2% and a form of Flat ABC and my preferred count tells me that we may have completed only A of this Flat Retracement ABC,wherein A was a three wave

sw1=4720-4998=278

sw2=4998-4928=70(25%)

sw3=4928-5110=182(65%)

And currently we are in B which is most likely to be minimum 90% of this A (and maximum 138.2%). So to me we have to test 4760 before coming up and crossing 5110.

What if we cross 5110 first?

That will not only invalidate the above mentioned count but also enforce a re-labeling of the current retracement. Then I'll have to treat this retracement as retracement of (higher degree) 5740-4720 which has retracement target(most likely) of 38.2% but the form for this retracement has to be other than a Flat ABC. And in this Alternate Count also,we have to fall to 4960 before going above 5110.

So Monday will take us below 5000 in both the cases.

Raghu