Trade Set-up 01-03-2012

How can we go down?

We can not go down as ABC.

If we label the 3 wave down-move from 5629-5268 as A then we can not go down because a 3 wave A means that Corrective ABC (as a whole) can be either a Flat or a Triangle.

For a Flat, B has to retrace 90%-138% of A;

For a Triangle,while an Expanding Triangle warranted much bigger B & C, the Contracting version would be something like--- shown below:

But we can definitely go down as WXY:

Now taking this Probability further,let us go inside this Y, presumably started from 5459 downwards:

Y.a ( from 5459 to 5352) has completed 3 waves so far:

5459-5400=59

5400-5436=36

5436-5352=84(142%)

If Y.a is complete then Y.b has to retrace minimum 90% of it that is come to 5428 before Y.c can come down.

If Y.a is incomplete,i.e. it has to complete a 5 wave form then its 4th subwave(currently in play) would not go above 5436 in any case and an extended 5th wave down-wards would follow and would do 85-96 points from its beginning.

Let me illustrate it in charts:

Thus a tick below 5352.65 can be used for initiating shorts for target of 95 points for (v).

Otherwise remain long with SL at 5352.65 for first intraday target of minimum 5428 and on a tick above 5436,positional target of 5600 should be kept in sight.

Conclusion: Watch 5352.65 and then label ABC or WXY for targets.
And the following channels may also prove useful:

Raghu