W1=4531-4800=269
W2=4800-4588=212
W3=4588-5211=623(232%)
W4=5211-5078=133
W5=5078--upwards has got invalidated as
W5=5078-5541*=463 has already gone 171% of W1 which is against the guidelines--two sub-waves can not be extended(i.e. both sw3 & sw5 can not be more than 1.618*sw1)
So we are still in W3 and our count stands as:
W1=4531-4800=269
W2=4800-4588=212
W3=4588-5541 and this W3 is capable of doing upto 425% of W1.
Though it has been my observation that whenever 3rd wave does more than 300% of 1st wave,wave 4 and wave 5 get subsumed within it and so now the probability of W4 and W5 occurring has become minimal.
But where shall this W3 end?
Probable levels are:
3.236*269(W1)=871=5459--done today
3.382*269=910=5498---done today
3.5*269=941=5530---done today
3.618*269=973=5561--next probable destination.
4.236*269=1140=5727
Combine these probable points with momentum observation to take positions--
Many of you would be wondering about Counts.
As the reference point--point zero from where I was building up the Counts i.e.5078 itself has got its label(as beginning of W5)invalidated,there is no point in Counting from there.
Now the only proper point zero are:
4531---from where we are counting beginning of W1
4588---from where we are counting beginning of W3.
So till we find another point zero,we have to make do with Fib. extension levels(as mentioned earlier)along with Momentum.
We could have tried to find subwaves within this W3=4588-5541* but the furosity of momentum along with gap-ups has not provided us proper reference points to do that.
So all that we have now is--Fib.extns,Momentum and channel/trendlines to depend upon.
And yes,here I must add one point.
As the last Bearish post,5620 exists.To remind all of you that at this upmove from 4531 is currently being seen as follows:
So we are quite close to the last Bear Post and that is why I still feel that it is a Bear Market Rally.Breaking above 5620 would confirm that 4531 was indeed the BOTTOM but till then,I would not be that categorical.
Raghu
Dear Raghuvanshiji,
ReplyDeleteOnce again very clear and informative post.Salutes.No idea about TA but just have a query,many large caps have made higher tops for the 1st time since the decline from 2010 end,some to the extent of 8-10% above the previous top before this present upmove. Does a possibility in TA exist that nifty will still make lower lows than 4531? Thanking in advance. Regards
Dear Shri Raghuvamshi Ji & Mr. Nag Raj,
ReplyDeleteThis is a sincere request from our side.
We are basically a long term investors and never tried to trade on daily basis. Only after following this forum @ Money Control we developed a lot of interest towards trading and started studying the subject.
Some how, we developed liking towards this forum ( most likely because of the knowledge & attitude of some of the people of this forum)and learning the science of trading. Particularly,regularly we read the posts of Shri Raghuvamshi & Shri Nagraj for the content and as to what is conveyed.
As learners we follow Shri Raghuvamshi's EW postings, try to relate the same with our observations to correct outselves.
We didn't apply to join your FB Group for the reason that we cannot contribute anything for the group as we are only learners.
But at times, after entering the market as per the guidance given by Shri Raghuvamshi, the market is doing something which was not thought off/anticipated by us.
In those circumstances, we many a times felt the need of guidance from experienced elders of your Group.
As you said the entry for FB Group is on invitation and it is closed as of now.
As such we are not asking for entry to FB Group.
But, if possible, on noticeable big deviation of the market from the openly discussed strategy of this forum, may we request you to guide us/update us by any one from the forum?
It is only a humble request, kindly consider the possibility.
Thanking You All
Dear Karjunanji,
ReplyDeleteThe answer to your query is there in my post.For your benefit,I am repeating it here---
Q
So we are quite close to the last Bear Post(5620) and that is why I still feel that it is a Bear Market Rally.Breaking above 5620 would confirm that 4531 was indeed the BOTTOM but till then,I would not be that categorical.
UnQ
Moreover,the TA and EW moves being discussed here are views from an amateur for max.2-3 days and with a perspective to interact,giving a great weightage to momentum on Hourly & Daily charts.Now you are interacting with me for more than a year so to say that you have "No idea about TA " sounds very artificial. Pl try to interact without such facade---it will be beneficial to everyone.
Dear Saty Kama ji,
ReplyDeleteThanks for writing.In fact I find it rather embarassing to have recd.such a long post for this issue . Our FB group is not having anything special or "secret information" that one can not share.Just make a FB ID and make a friendship request to Sunny Hooda.
sir,
ReplyDeletei under stand now nifty at 3 wave[5].
then 4 th wave down.
then final 5 th wave up.
To continue bear rally sl for final 5 th wave is 5610.
pl advice
thanks
Dear sarvanan,It would be great if you could mention the subwaves of 3wave so far---
ReplyDeletesir,
ReplyDeletejust from justnifty; tradeinniftyonly.blogspot
guruji,
ReplyDeletewhat is importance of 5620 didnt get it?
Piyushji,
ReplyDeleteAs the last Bearish Count.mentioned in detail in Special Updates section and also in the last chart above,the move down from 6339(Diwali 2010) is being seen as a WXY count where W=ABC ended at 4728 and then X=ABC can be stretched at the most to 5618 where XA=4728-5400=672(3 wave);
XB=5400-4531=869(129%)(3 wave);
XC=4531--up by max 1.618*672=1087=5618
thanks a lot guruji
DeleteRaghuji,
ReplyDeleteSomthing stuck my mind today.. remember the first fall from 6130 levels all the way to 5177 levels 1000+ points fall from the top.. is the upmove which is also 1000 + point (4530-5530) the same mirror image.?
And we will keep retracing and moving back to the top end of the channel now. ? just a thought.
We will spend more time at the top now rather then bottom and slowly through the year move to higher levels then lower levels?
Whenever you get time please have a look and let me know your thoguhts?