Today morning's Trade set-up was the most detailed EW analysis of small degree waves posted by me on this blog.However there is one 75 year old person with whom I used to do such detailed analysis very regularly--Sh. Chandra Ranjan ji Gaur.
And it is the "practice sessions" done with him that I am able to follow EW chart patterns and rule out probabilities as the live ticker prints mkt-patterns on my monitor.
Despite the detailed post about the Corrective(from 5461 upwards) to the Impulse(5629-5461) today morning,one small thing was not mentioned.
A=5461-5537=76;
B=5537-5473=64
C was said to go above A(5537) and most ideally 5549(C=A) then what was missed?
That minimum for C was 0.62*A=47=5520 was the minimum that C had to do : and this needed a specific mention which got missed.
Though I recall my FB friend Atul Harkut's comment on facebook group where he asked:
"wave B(a): 5460-5537=77, B(b): 5537 - 5473 = 64 so shorting points becomes c=.62a= 5520, c=a=5550, c=1.62a=5598....am i correct??
.png)
And it is the "practice sessions" done with him that I am able to follow EW chart patterns and rule out probabilities as the live ticker prints mkt-patterns on my monitor.
Despite the detailed post about the Corrective(from 5461 upwards) to the Impulse(5629-5461) today morning,one small thing was not mentioned.
A=5461-5537=76;
B=5537-5473=64
C was said to go above A(5537) and most ideally 5549(C=A) then what was missed?
That minimum for C was 0.62*A=47=5520 was the minimum that C had to do : and this needed a specific mention which got missed.
Though I recall my FB friend Atul Harkut's comment on facebook group where he asked:
"wave B(a): 5460-5537=77, B(b): 5537 - 5473 = 64 so shorting points becomes c=.62a= 5520, c=a=5550, c=1.62a=5598....am i correct??
And that gives me confidence that some of my friends would definitely have used this level of 5520 for shorting (and succeeded in catching the top) as I missed it.
Now getting on with our Counts:
Currently I am treating this Down move from 5629 as W4 of the Impulse started from 4531 so on that degree we currently stand as follows
.png)
As
W1=4531-4800=269
W2=4800-4588=212
W3=4588-5629=1041
W4 doing minimum 23.6%=244=5385 and that matches with our 20DMA target (currently 5382)
And so far,this W4 as ABC has done:
A=5629-5461=168
B=5461-5537(though ended at 5521)
C=5521 downwards in progress and ideally it should do (as C=A) 5353 and minimum(C=0.62*A)5417.
As we have done 5406 today,so minimum C has been done but minimum W4 remains to be done at 5385.
And this was the reason for my not being comfortable going long towards the session end(despite my Guru Wave Rider expressing the possibility of gap-up on Monday)
See you all on Monday morning.Have a nice week-end.
Raghu
thanks and same to you sir.
ReplyDeleteregards,
Namaste ji........
ReplyDeleteOn this count one thing - without trying to corrupt your thought process with my ZZomplex......errrrrr complex ZZ count :D
(I know u are strong enough not to get korrupted by any other count) = A mark of self konfidenze in your home work. SALUTE to the Chief.
Q
A=5629-5461=168
B=5461-5537(though ended at 5521)
C=5521 downwards in progress and ideally it should do (as C=A) 5353 and minimum(C=0.62*A)5417.
UnQ
observing the following - IMHO (God bless Naagi for coining this term) :D
A = 168
B = 60 (5521-5461).....35% of A
So the pattern cannot be anything but a corrective (my reference to entire corrective w4 from 5629).
C needs to be an impulse.........like A or at least an ED.
ED appears after an extended run up by its preceding wave......after a w3 or in this case wave A........so far so good.......but the spoilsport IMHO
The failure of wave C of W4.B to go above B of W4.A (5537).
Running flat......implies strength counter to the failed C......in the direction of the W4.A
So we can rule out minimum target for C as at least C=A if not more.
That wud put the W4 at 5521-168 = 5353 and if w4 does 38.2%....at 5231..........
Will W4 do 5231.....lol.....wish I knew it....but at this time probability existings based on
4.A = 168.......4.B ended 5521 and 4.C targets:
T1 - 5385 (P3)
T2 - 5231 (P1)
T3 - 5250 (P2)
So W4. cannot do more than 5250 MAX and though T1, T2 and T3 are shown in order of progression....per the relationshi of wave C with wave A in a ZZ......they are listed as Priority (P1) within brackets. What is important is they are all valid targetz.
Big question what if W4 does........5629-269 (w1) = 5360......which works out to 26%........W5 may have trouble squeaking past 5629.
So that is a level, I'd watch closely.
Thank you very much Guruji---nice elaborations.The best one being:
ReplyDeleteQ
The failure of wave C of W4.B to go above B of W4.A (5537).
Running flat......implies strength counter to the failed C......in the direction of the W4.A
So we can rule out minimum target for C as at least C=A if not more.
UnQ
And the trouble that I had in disposing off my Ces during closing minutes further confirms it---
Posting on behalf of LaluPrasad ji ;)
ReplyDeleteDear RRaghu ji !/ Other Dear visitors !
Han ji han mujhe bhee malum hai, aap dono mil kar kuchh khichdee pakaya karte they.
kahte hain na Practice makes a man perfect !
Lekin practice se aap toh Ban gaye sachin Tendulkar, Lekin ye mand- buddhi Chandraranjan toh mujhe lagta hai, abhee bhee Jhunjhuna dass hee hai ! chandra ranjan ji, aap padho toh bura mat manana. satya toh satya hee hai. ha ha ha ! waise Chandra ranjan se bat karo toh wo bhee yahee kahta hai, EW ke rules & guidelines to koi space science nahee hai, sablog aasanee se unhe samajh aur hridyangam kar sakte hain, Young bachche jitnee jyada practice karenge utnee jaldee expert ho jayenge. Wo toh ye bhee kahta hai… EW jaisa sharp doosra koi TA nahee. Jaroorat hai… practice kee & tatha mukhya taur par is bat kee ki, KITNE ALTERNATE COUNTS SIMULTANEOUSLY KOI VYAKTI APNE DIMAG MEIN ACTIVE RAKH SAKTA HAI, AUR AAWASHYAKTA PADNE PAR KITNEE JALDEE EK COUNT SE DOOSRE COUNT KEE TARAF SWITCH KAR SAKTA HAI. Jai Shree Ram.
=aapka shishya Laluprasad !
very clear analysis and discussions thank u gurujano
ReplyDeleteguruji,
ReplyDeleteit just stuck me that u mentioned alternation as very imp.
wave 2 triple zz. so wave 4 maybe flat/ triangle. so this move may be just wave a (a zz). but u mentioned a monday as probable
end of 4th so this again will remain a zz like wave 2.
Dear Piyush,
ReplyDeleteW4 can not be a combo like W2; so ZZ is quite okay.
As W4.A was a 5 wave Impulse so a flat gets ruled out.
Triangle though remains a probability.
thank u for ur reply guruji,
Deletei remember from my readings that the A of flat(ABC) consists of zz abc . so A wud be 5*3*5 labelled as abc. B another zz abc of 5*3*5 abc, C is 5 wave impulse. am i correct in my interpretation.
however u r saying that a in this case 5629-5460 shud have been 3 wave form its 5 so not a flat. as per my interpertation of beckman/pretcher this tentative move till 5350* may be A of flat, then B then C. so fibo is respected, 5323 respected time taken is more.
but to me it occurs can be A of flat u have ruled that out.
sirji where am i erring in interpretation of pretcher/beckman and u .
You are presuming A to be still continuing.Then W4 can develop as a Flat(as A in that case would be a 3 wave ZZ).
DeleteHoweverI am taking A as over at 5461(as a 5 wave) so ruling out Flat. Where is confusion?
If A is continuing then Flat is probable.
If A is over at 5461,flat is ruled out.
simple---
dhanyawaad guruji.
Delete