Nifty on 03-08-2012

"Markets are the most entertaining places on the face of the Earth.They are like a card game, a chess game, and a horse race all rolled into one. The game goes on at all hours—you can always find action.

Trading is the most exciting activity that a person can do with their clothes on. Trouble is, you cannot feel excited and make money at the same time."

-Dr. Elder Alexander

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An Intraday pull back of 60-odd points can again bring us up in 5240 zone--- to complete B(c) and in view of the negative sentiments developed overnight,I would not be surpised if the last subwave(v) of B(c) remains truncated i.e. doesnot go above the high of subwave(iii) i.e. 5246.
So the B wave from 5033 upwards gets labelled as:
B(a)=5033-5150=117
B(b)=5150-5078=72
B(c) in play from 5078 upwards and cannot do more than 1.618xB(a)=5267 and so the likelihood of its playing out as a diagonal is very high:
(i)=5078-5218=140
(ii)=5218-5154=64
(iii)=5154-5246=92
(iv)=5246-5210* in play
 and (v) yet to play out.

So a gap-down to 5180 and then a rise to 5250 and then beginning of larger downmove as C to sub 5000 --this is how I am seeing the August series fanning out. 150DMA at 5164 may very well be today's downpoint. And please donot forget that 5267 is the upperboundary for these labels. Violation of 5267 would make these labels invalid. For traders,therefore,the stop-loss for shorts remains at 5267.
9.45 AM
First hurdle of the day.Part booking of shorts advised.

10.09 AM

If anyone chooses to go long--I am not doing so,but would short again at higher levels--one must put a stop loss at day's low.
10.45 AM
As pointed out by Piyush, the downmove doesnot remain a zig-zag below 5172 as a=5246-5210=36;b=5210-5231;c=5231-5270*=61 means c has exceeded its limit of 1.618 and become extended so the downmove has to be termed (i),(ii) and extended (iii) fro 5231 downwrds----
And thus the higher degree downmove is on as---
A=5348-5033
B=5033-5246
C=5246--downwards normally C=A=315 gives a target of 4931
Minimum is 0.62xA=195=5050
So all shorts should be held for positional gains now---

11.35 AM
Trying to locate next trendline support in view of major fall indicated :

12.03 PM
150 DMA seems to have supported--reaction upmoves may be handled with the help of following channels:

12.22 PM :
Did anyone read my post on L & T in Jackpot Trades yesterday ?
If yes--then must be a happy person now--


1.40 PM

1.50 PM
Markets always have one extra hidden in its sleeve.
While I was expecting an ideal 5 wave Impulse as:
5246-5210
5210-5231
5231-5165
5164--upward not going into 5210--
but by going into 5210 it has informed that Ist Impulse was over at 5165.(besides filling the gap created in the morning---)


So the C wave to the down from 5246 should be seen as:
C1-5246-5165=81
C2-5165-5210.1*

EOD:
Can I cannot help laughing---I wrote in the morning,quoting Elder Alexander,that mkts. are the most entertaining places--and look how it played out--


So now that
C1=5246-5165=81
C2=5165-5220=55(68%) and following channel seems to be in play:

And as I write this,some doubts are creeping in my mind:
B(c)=5078-5246 was not complete as a 5 subwave diagonal in the morning so should we not continue with our labels as B(c) still in play :
(i)=5078-5218=140
(ii)=5218-5155
(iii)=5155-5246=92
(iv)=5246-5165
(v)=5165-5220*


While the internal fractals of (iv) as 5246-5210;5210-5231;5231-5165 donot allow me to term it as a zig-zag(as c can not do more than 1.62*a) but then absence of 4th & 5th subwaves coupled with the fact that 5155 remained unbreached, makes me mention this Probablity also as still ON.
And if so,then we may go upto 5165+91=5256


So all shorts to have their Stop-losses at 5258 (and not at 5247)and target at sub-5000.


Good bye,have a nice week-end.


PS:
Bulls may say that we got support at 150DMA and closed above 20 DMA again,But I would become bullish only above 5258.
However,I must mention that today's mid-day turnaround was something which had been missing from our markets of late.