Yesterday I had written:
Q
But once the bears have been trapped,will they be allowed breathing space so soon?
UnQ
And rest is history.
So today,I am preferring to count it as a fresh upwave from 4639 (not a retracement ABC but a fresh Upwave with 5 subwaves):
W1=4639-4866
W2=4866-4755
W3=4755-5060* in play as a 5 wave form:Minimum Target:5285
(i)=4755-5011
(ii)=5011-4917
(iii)=4917-5060*
And for some time to come,4917 shall form a barrier /support for all downmoves.
What shall happen to the downmove from 5400?
-Its hugely extended SW3(=5326-4639) seems to have subsumed the SW4 & SW5 within it.
So broadly,I am taking this higher degree Corrective from 6339(started from Diwali 2010) to be over at 4639 and we are now in a long-term up move(of course with its inherent ups & downs).
Criticisms/comments are welcome.
:-))
Raghu
Dear Guruji - I think we are missing the fundamental aspects of Nifty at this stage and jumping the gun a bit too soon for the larger upmove that is due undoubtedly but not before a deeper correction.
ReplyDeleteThe front-line stocks are yet to find a bottom IMHO and the only way to confirm a larger upmove in place is 2 consecutive closes above 5350 [or 1 monthly close above 5400] that takes out the decreasing trend-line in place from 5th Nov high of 6338; unless that does not happen, we should not consider this as a commencement of a bull market for Nifty. Broader markets also hinting at more pain pending.....but once we have 2 weekly candles with low above 5350 or 1 monthly candle with low above 5400, then I have no choice but to agree with you.....
Dear Naagi,
ReplyDeleteYou have simply repeated your belief & registered your disagreement. hanks for the same.
While the levels mentioned by you will CONFIRM what I have written,the upmove has to BEGIN from somewhere.
And what other tool can say it FIRST.
While one ABC may be followed by another,
( though usually combos are reserved for 4th waves) and the one way uptrend may come later,but the BOTTOM has been established.It is my firm & considered opinion.
raghuji,
ReplyDeleteam wid nagi, may b we have called the bottom a tad too soon, but no pt fighting over a kingdom which is ephemeral !
Am "santusht" trading wave to wave , as was the first thing that u taught me ... Let time answer the Bigger puzzle :-)
urs
Hi Raghuji, I am missing wave guidance as you people left MMB and I was not joined yet in your FB group.
ReplyDeletePlease have a look on the broad channel pattern of nifty since May 2009 and if this view is useful to decide market trends... guide me too. I request Harshal ji too keep an eye on this.
here is the link,
http://tinyurl.com/7z6u3rl
Thanks,
gkp378
Dear Raghuvanshiji,
ReplyDeletePranaam! Your and Harshalji's
excellent previous posts and especially your
today's post have regenerated the worm in me to
again follow the markets and their technicals
diligently,which I had lost out some time
back....LOL.Thank you for that.Now only time
will tell if I really learn something new or
confuse myself all the more as I did the last
time around... LOL.
Anyways,I actually need your indepth guidance
in deciphering the web-like wave structures of
TCS and Federal bank.If possible, can you
kindly spare your time and efforts.
Thanking you in advance
Regards,
Karjunan
Guruji,
ReplyDeleteIn my simple mind, lables for W3.ii.C do not satisfy either an ED or a IMPULSE
Rest is for ur consideration
Dear gkp,
ReplyDeleteYou have to register youself on Facebook and send a request to Sunny Hooda for joining the FB group.
Thanks for your link :-)
Dear Shri,
ReplyDeleteI consider the previous upmove to 5400 as a one day wonder and choose to treat W3(ii)C as a 5 wave play.
Market Prudence has to score over copy-book perfection.
:-))
Dear K,
ReplyDeleteOn a personal level I do follow a few stocks but the wo mentioned by you are not amongst them.So I may be able to provide good clues--
this is a shocker guruji,
ReplyDeletemy last question typing again--
'can 4th wave be a diagonal triangle or wedge shape instead of equilateral/ascending /descending '
when wave is not helping maybe few thoughts
1) a 5 year bull market's corretion just 14 months?? corrections usually take more time.
2) we are making the case of bear market finishing at very high valuation in terms of p/e,book value,div yield. the data can be checked for validity of my statement.
suppose 5400-4639 is one set of 5 waves then wave 2 invalidation is 5400.
one set of 5 waves can never be alone apart of c of flat/exp flat. if 5400-4639 is 5 waves one more set pending atleast if u r treating 6338-4639 is ed/diagonal triangle then...
can it occur independently in wave 2.. my question above is that only..
Dear Piyush,
ReplyDeleteQ
my last question typing again--
'can 4th wave be a diagonal triangle or wedge shape instead of equilateral/ascending /descending
UnQ
Diagonal is used for Motives.
Triangle is used for Correctives.
Common point of a Diagonal & Triangle is 5 subwaves(3*3*3*3*3).
4th wave Triangle looking like a wedge is quite common.
Now the Second Part:
I believe(and my chart says it)we are in a fresh upwave from 2250(Dec 2008)and current corrective is being seen by me as a Corrective Subwave of 3919-6339 having done its Zig-zag ABC at 4639, thereby retracing 70%.Yes,the C here does have an anomaly( as pointed out by Shriramoka also)but I am ignoring that as a one day wonder.
Dear guruji,
ReplyDeleteu had asked me a Q last month, how do u see the wave from 6358-2252 & 2252-6339
Sub fracs of 2252-6339 look like a regular ZZ, rather than an IMPULSE. W3.(i) as a ZZ ???
Pls give the 5 wave lables for 2252-6339 as u see them. Shud resolve the matter once & for all
urs
Dear Raghuvanshiji,
ReplyDeletePranaam!Seeing your grasp,
dedication,coupled with your frank,humble and
genuine opinions,I was just hoping that you
would surely be tracking and so would help me
with these 2 stocks. Thanks for the reply
anyways.
Actually, I'm taking the freedom of using
a lot of private blog space to express my
opinion which has nothing to do with
technicals,so pls forgive me Nagraj ji and all
others responsible.Brother,pls don't see any
other meaning in my opinions other than what
I'm stating.
During my stint with trading I
have come across many different people,some are
super smart,brilliant in the TA field.None of
them have even remotely indicated what you have
stated.Infact all have indicated major
corrections due,from time to time in the
market.Now either they know most or all of what
you are stating and as usual are deliberately
pointing somewhere else or they have not
judged it the way you have,so in
either case,you have a rare combo talent of
insight and experience.You are blessed and so
are all those whom you are guiding so
diligently. Guru Babe ki meher hai twade
par.God bless you for your honesty,humility and
dedication.I sincerely hope to meet you
sometime in life.
Regards,
Karjunan
Dear Shri,
ReplyDeleteJust as our forefathers said"All answers lye within" ,the answer to your question also lies within your observation:
Q
Sub fracs of 2252-6339 look like a regular ZZ
UnQ
That means you are seeing 2252-6339 as a zz ABC with 5 wave C.
This 5 wave C is being seen by me as W3(i).Where is the problem my dear?
Thanks dear K,
ReplyDeleteEvery individual has a style of his own.And mostly ,in disagreements,it becomes WILD.
Your style of remaining MILD and not WILD in disagreement indicates your maturity as an individual.
Frankly,I remain in isolation as far as the Counts have been understood (and mentioned) by me. But they have been put forth transparently--something which analysts would not do. One can see my counts, reject and move ahead.I am okay with that.
But, as has been an old saying, mkt. does against the majority.
thanx for reply raghuji,
ReplyDelete5328.7 was the invalidation of wave 4. market has spent few hours over 2 days above the invalidation. one tick manipulation maybe we can ignore hard ew rule. but shud we ignore" wave 4 not entering wave 1" here
guruji, just a plain look of chart gives a look of double zigzag since 6338 ending at 4720/4728/4758 and if we consider new impulse 3.3 from there it cud be ideal (as it fits my small brain) but 4639 has told that one set of 5 waves ends here. so for 5th to end here, it is a long invalidation of elliott rule with hourly closing above 5328.7. shud we do it??
guruji have u explored a triangle since jan 2008, maybe c ends and d begins. (u must have but i wrote just in case....)
Raghuji,
ReplyDeletePls check this count:-
W: 2252 4693 2441
X: 4693 3919 -774 -31.7%
Y: as
Y.A 3919 5182 1263
Y.B 5182 4786 -396 -31.4% (CT)
Y.C 4786 6339 1553 123.0%
The move from 2252-6339 , looks more like a 3-wave, tats the SUMMARY of wot i m trying to state
urs
sorry ... i meant DZZ ABC-X-ABC
ReplyDeleteTo be precise, Sub-fracs of the leg up from 3919 , look like a ZZ
Y.A 3919 5182 1263
Y.B 5182 4786 -396 -31.4% (CT)
Y.C 4786 6339 1553 123.0%
Pls label the 5wave sub fracs from 3919-6339 as u see them.
urs
Dear Shri,
ReplyDeleteSo the move from 6357(Jan 2008) to 2252(Dec 2008) was a DZZ and then 2252 to 6339(Nov 2010) was a DZZ and now 6339--down also a DZZ !!!
Lets agree to disagree---
:-)
Yeah Piyushji,
ReplyDeleteThis is the anomaly I was mentioning.
If its beyond digestion, pl leave it.
I'm okay with it.
:-)
hahahah... indeed raghuji,
ReplyDeleteas i said, no pt taking a hard stand, as the kingdom we look to conquer @ HIGHER DEGREE is ephemeral... :-)
one funny idea tat comes to mind immediately from ur obsv is that we may be in an ASCENDING CT , whose leg A & B are over & C is in progress !! if that is so the upside will be capped @ 6339-6358 zone for next 5-10 yrs ;-D