It was a bit disppointing day as the 3rd wave labelled should have continued its upward momentum a lot more.
And to further see how the smaller degree waves fared,Hourly Charts were opened.
And,I must share my first reaction with all of you:
IT LOOKS LIKE A WXY PATTERN
So I am putting up those labels:
And as I had mentioned yesterday as well, hopes of bears are not dead till 4843 is breached.
And I am continuing with bears' chart as well(along with its nemesis,the channel break:
Thus I would conclude with yesterday's remarks only:
Both Counts have one thing in common--pointing in upward direction.But one takes us only upto 4843,whereas the other takes us much higher.
Safetywise,4773 is the safest target(see hourly Chart) and above it momentum should show us the way.
Raghu
Raghu ji..........Drawing the channel for the current wave would also be a big help IMHO...
ReplyDeleteThe TRICK that Nifty wud play & is what I am looking out for:
Resorting to age old formality of TL theory.........in most cases when a TL breakz.........price retreats to the broken TL.....nicknamed "A BACKTEST"
We may backtest the broken TL & that would be VALID if the current lower TL holdz up.
Like a spring board.....one declining TL - already broken and the other a rising TL offering support........Expecting the vault to be high PROVIDED the confluence of both rising and declining TL hold up.
Today was a tie....
Bulls were unable to get past the upper wave channel of the current move and the bears were unable to take price below the current TL.
Weekly candlez should provide a good clue...and unfortunately there is nothing exciting about this week's close except we closed a little higher and on weekly basis - we are still within the channel.....Hopefully it would break either way - by friday next :D
Dear WR,
ReplyDeleteYour reading and responding to my post is a blessing I cherish. Thanks !!!
Dear Raghu ji !
ReplyDeleteOo toh theek hee hai, 4763-4693 chahe C-2 kahibo karee chahe Y-b, turat furat kauno farak nahee !
kintu ee ka nanha munna a/b/c ka nap taul toh rahiygawa !
tou ka 4763-4724-4763-4693 kee tedi bankee nap hee manvo padee ?
IMHO..NOI..GBY
Dear Raghuji,
ReplyDeleteKindly post your views on Monday morning to get your views fine tuned...if possible only
Dear Laluji/Kamayak ji,
ReplyDeleteOn the basis of my Counts,one can fix a trading range but not possible to trade Intraday as the smaller degree waves would drench you.
e.g. now for Monday a range of 4633-4773 has been mentioned--but how you trade in this range is another expertise that has to be developed individually.Broadly speaking if we open lower then we have to go long with SL at 4633 and then gradually follow up with Trailing SL upto 4773 and above(what these trailing SL would be,can not be mentioned now).If we open above 4773 then the trading strategy has to be different and all longs should be gradually closed as we approach 4843 and watch momentum to short/long.
Only help that these counts can give is that above 4844,the gates to 4990 would get opened and below 4633 upmove should be considered over; but there also how one initiates trades is again a different ball game.
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ReplyDeleteraghuji,
ReplyDeletewxy is bearish count retracing wave 5099-4531 or 4893 4531?? 4840 is imp because u r considering as possible labelling 5099-4844 as 1?? am i assuming both correct or anything wrong..
laloo bhaiya bhojpuri padh ke maja aa gaya
Dear Raghuji,
ReplyDeleteThank you sir
Great work Raghu ji..Your diligent effort to publish your hypothesis on a daily basis is very much appreciated..It really give us an insight on things to come.. Please do keep up the good work..
ReplyDeleteThanks and Regards
Govind
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ReplyDeleteDear Piyushji,
ReplyDeleteIf you watch closely,you would realise that actually both Counts are bearish.Only difference is one is visualising the current retracement as retracement of 5400-4531 (with a possible destination of upto 5275)while the other is considering it as a retracement of 4918-4351 which would become invalid if we move above 4843.
thank u guruji.
ReplyDeletemere naam ke aage 'ji' laga mujhe sharminda na kijiye...
Dear Raghu ji !
ReplyDeleteCould you please make me understand, that maintaining 4844 unbreached, how the bearish chart you exhibited can remain in force? ( Until unless maiya wish to post a specially structured wave )
After breaching 4660 & with out doing 4500, what role 4844 can play ?
Just trying to oiling the hinges of my Khopdee ! yours reply would do that well !
NOI . GBY !
Dear Laluji,
ReplyDeleteI could not understand your question:-(
Still let me repeat:
Option1: If we go above 4844,possibility upto 5275 will open up.
Option2: If we do not breach 4844,and go below 4693 now,sub-4531 would be seen