Nifty:EOD 30.12.2011

Now we have the question,posed yesterday, whether this down-move from 4800 is a 3 wave or 5 wave.It assumes more significance today as the minimum for the 3 wave-4922-was done today.
So far:
SW1=4800-4672=128
SW2=4672-4702=30
SW3=4702-4609*=93
Now this SW3(in itself) in any case has to be a 5 wave form.So lets see the Intraday Chart from 4702 downwards to figure out what form it has taken so far:



As mentioned in the chart, for a 3 wave ABC,C can very well be an Ending Diagonal and that seems to have fulfilled the minimum basic required for a 3 wave.
Then is the downmove over?
Only a breach of 4702 on the upside would confirm that and then WXYXZ count as mentioned yesterday would become our guide.

And if 4702 holds then we have to Count:
SW1=4800-4672=128
SW2=4672-4702=30
SW3= Target minimum 1.62*SW1=207=4495
(i)4702-4609=93
(ii)4609---upwards

Thus once again it is left to momentum to give us a clearer pattern.Markets have been trading in a very narrow range of 20-30 points throughout the day,making a dash --up or down -- in the last hour. Would try to devote some time to momentum studies for sharing my own readings--

Last week-end of the year 2011 is here.Trust all of you would be welcoming the new year in your own style.I wish you all a very happy ,healthy & prosperous new year with a gentle reminder towards social responsibilities. Let's all take a pledge to do something for not so lucky ones in this new year and contribute to make this world a better place to live in.

Raghu

Nifty: EOD 29.12.2011

Continuing with yesterday's updated chart:



Yesterday I wrote:
Q
On Hourly Charts the Downmove started from 4800 can be seen as:
SW1=4800-4686*
4800-4751
4751-4772
4772-4686
4686-4727
4727-4698* likely to test 4675-4680
Then SW2 upwards by 61.8%=4750
UnQ

While Nifty paused at 4672 and moved up but instead of going upto 4750,remained limited to 4702 thus retracing the minimum 23.4% instead of the optimum(for SW2)61.8%.And I take that as a sign of downward momentum and foresee a gap-down move tomorrow.
Thus we have:
SW1=4800-4672
SW2=4672-4702
SW3=4702-4639*
And as per the chart above,this SW3 should take us down to minimum 1.62*SW1
i.e.4494


But I would like to add a word of caution here.


The downmove started from 4800,after the finishing of WXY may be X(a 3-wave form) of a triple combo WXYXZ as in following Chart:




So taking a conservative view,this SW3 has the possibility of playing out even 0.62*SW1(min) and that comes to 80=4622 or optimally 4574(=SW1)

Now the common point of both the Counts is their similar direction.And I personally believe that once below 4633,4574 should be seen easily.After that the momentum play would decide the final pattern.

So I am assigning two targets for this SW3:4574 and 4494

Stop loss for Shorts tomorrow should be 4702.

Raghu

Nifty EOD 28-12-2011

Grinding day wherein Nifty maintained a very narrow range but 4693 was breached on the downside and that was a trend-decider as far as my Counts were concerned.
Of my two Counts,the WXY was played out when Y.c played 4693-4800;
and the second one(more bullish),which was to come into play above 4843 also became invalid once 4693 got breached on the downside.
Now the stand-alone wave being Counted is the down move from 5099 dt.7.12.2011 and I would be Counting it as per following Chart.



And an extended Fifth means 1.62*257=416=4385 would be seen in January.

On Hourly Charts the Downmove started from 4800 can be seen as:
SW1=4800-4686*
4800-4751
4751-4772
4772-4686
4686-4727
4727-4698* likely to test 4675-4680


Then SW2 upwards by 61.8%=4750

This is what looks likely for tomorrow wherein a range of 4675-4750 is expected through the day.Last Hour tomorrow may show us fast & furious fall.

Raghu

PS: Unable to post Hourly charts as zignals.com is not reflecting yesterday's trade.

Nifty:EOD 27.12.2011

Not able to post the Hr chart as zignals.com is not updating today's data and nseindia's chart can not be reproduced here.
Of the two counts being mentioned by me for last 2-3 days,one -- the conservative upmove WXY count--- that was taking us upto 4823(optimally) has played out however we can not as of now say that the relief rally is over as 4693 has not been breached on the downside.
Today's downmove so far can be best seen as a 3 wave pattern:
4800-4751
4751-4772
4772-4723

If tomorrow's trades breach 4772 on the upside(4772.5,to be exact)we may be in for some more small-range bound move as further corrective combos and for the bullish outlook 4843 needs to be broken on the upside.And if 4693 gets breached on the downside,we would hurry to sub-4500.
So SL for longs is 4693
SL for shorts is 4773.

Raghu

Nifty:EOD 26.12.2011

Continuing with my "conservative" WXY count:
Yesterday's chart was:



And today it shaped up:



Normal destination for Y.c=Y.a=4823
Minimum level of 4773,as mentioned in yesterday's chart has been fulfilled.
And to help us see if the prices would slide on the lower side,following trendline on Hour chart would be helpful,though real confirmation of the "relief rally" being over would come if we go below 4693



And if we go above 4843,then gates would be opening to targets of 4991,5166 & 5275( see previous day's posts)

Nifty: EOD 23.12.2011

Continuing with yesterday's Bullish Count:



It was a bit disppointing day as the 3rd wave labelled should have continued its upward momentum a lot more.
And to further see how the smaller degree waves fared,Hourly Charts were opened.
And,I must share my first reaction with all of you:
IT LOOKS LIKE A WXY PATTERN
So I am putting up those labels:




And as I had mentioned yesterday as well, hopes of bears are not dead till 4843 is breached.

And I am continuing with bears' chart as well(along with its nemesis,the channel break:




Thus I would conclude with yesterday's remarks only:
Both Counts have one thing in common--pointing in upward direction.But one takes us only upto 4843,whereas the other takes us much higher.
Safetywise,4773 is the safest target(see hourly Chart) and above it momentum should show us the way.

Raghu

Nifty:EOD 22.12.2011

So 4729 got breached and so for the time being 4531 seems like a bottom.
Where do we go from here:
The first Probability was mentioned in the morning post.
Let's continue with that.



And in the Hourly Charts:



SL for Longs is 4633.

So is the hope for bears dead--- not yet.Till we breach 4844 ,bear hopes should remain alive.
As the following Chart would explain:



What tilts me towards the Bullish Count is:
1. 4th waves are not so fast & furious.
2. Channel break that is shown in the Chart below.




Otherwise, both Counts are giving the current direction as up, though one takes us only upto 4843,the other much higher.

Raghu

Nifty:Beginning 22-12-2011

I have been betting on a bearish Count with sub-4500 targets.
Mentioning 4729 as SL for shorts.
Got lot of enquiries after yesterday's sharp upmove as to what if 4729 is broken.
So for that scenario, I am mentioning the Bullish Count.



Best of luck.

Raghu

Nifty:EOD 21-12-2011

On EOD charts, the Count can be read as follows:




And on Hour chart.it appears as follows:




However, 4th wave usually is not so fast & furious. And that is a matter of concern.
So shorts should have strict SL at 4727.

Raghu

Nifty:Beginning 21-12-2011

As posted in yesterday evening,ideally the small degree wave,started from 4840 downwards should complete its last leg:



And this last leg,ideally & hypothetically,should be something like this:



However,in view of the
i)bullish rally globally and
ii)the fact that minimum level of 4532 having been achieved for this wave;
we should expect a gap-up opening today. And if this gap-up goes above 4615 then we should consider the current wave as over & out.
And count the higher degree wave(shown with a target of 4504)wherein the upmove would be seen as a 4th wave retracing the 3rd wave=4840-4531



And the stop-loss for shorts should be 4729.

Raghu

Nifty: EOD 20-12-2011

For the sake of continuity, let me begin from yesterday's post:



Thus minimum 4512 should show up before any remarkable retracement sets in.

Raghu

Nifty: Sub-4500 very much on the cards

The last minute pull-up is not likely to last.

So tomorrow we may test 4656 and then slide back to sub-4500.

SL must for shorts at 4675.

Raghu

Whither L & T : An EW Probability

As usual,these are simplest of Counts--referred to as plain vanilla counts by my Guru.

And my success rate is not great. So handle with care.

Raghu

Nifty : Unanswered questions

Am still struggling to retrieve data and make some meaningful post as writing this blog has become a habbit and inability to write a post makes me feel as if I have missed out something.

On small degree,lot of negative bias remains and my inability to find correct EW pattern has led me to rely more on traditional support/resistance levels to enter/exit trading positions. Todays resistance at 4840 being a live example which , combined with negativity caused by Inflation numbers, became a tough level to crack and similarly 4720-4750 band acted as good support.

I would be back with my EW counts as soon as I am comfortable with them.

Till then,Naagi's posts should suffice.

Raghu

Nifty:EOD 12-12-2011

Alongwith my bullish count,as ill-luck would have it, the power-supplying unit of my Lap-top also crashed.
Great momentum downwards and the one pattern that immediately comes to mind is:


However,it envisages something which is very rare: w3 & w5 both being extended--- something near impossible as w3 was already extended by 350%.

So lets acknowledge the momentum and wait for a better pattern to emerge.

Raghu

Nifty EOD 9-12-2011

In continuation with yesterday's Hourly chart:

I posting today's chart:

Herein the ABC of the Corrective looks complete to me as:

A=5099-4939

B=4939-4985

C=4985-4842

Thus our Count now stands as:

W1=4639-4866=227

W2=4866-4755=111

W3= 4755 upwards and should do a minimum of 5122(=1.62*W1) to max 5720(=4.25*W1) in 5 sub waves:

(i)=4755-5099=344

(ii)=5099-4842

(iii)=4842-4918* Target now is 5400+

I know this bullish count is against many analysts and today's close below 4880 does not favour it as well but I have gone long again with SL at 4942 and also in my favorite trading stock SBI with SL at 1838. And with above counts it looks the most logical trade as well. Today's minute chart was indicating 4866 as a crucial level and as it got breached,Nifty rushed to test 4918. However,it came to trade below 4866 in closing minutes again to keep the mystery alive.

Raghu

Nifty EOD:8-12-2011

Yesterday I had mentioned two probabilities,and the following one became a reality:

Now our Count stands as:

W1=4639-4866=227

W2=4866-4755=111

W3= 4755 upwards and should do a minimum of 5122(=1.62*W1) to max 5720(=4.25*W1) in 5 sub waves:

(i)=4755-5099=344

(ii)=5099-4921*

ALTERNATIVELY, it can be counted as:

W1=4639-4866=227

W2=4866-4755=111

W3= 4755 -5099=344(151%)

W4=5099-4921*

W5 to come up as extended beyond 1.62*W1-- however I reject this alternative as a 4th wave usually is not so sharp as witnessed today

So the labels adopted by me are as follows:

And now we have to analyse the Corrective from 5099 downwards:

As it is a retracement of 4755-5099=344, it has to be a 3 wave form & probable targets are:

50% retracement=4927---done today

61.8% retracement=4886

76.4% retracement=4836

Now lets try & analyse the form taken so far by this Corrective:

5 min chart:

And on Hour Chart,another possibility appears which also needs mention:

Either way, for a logical three way form, this Corrective looks like testing 4885 for sure, so one should take stance accordingly.

Best of luck.

Raghu

Scoring A Century:101st Post

Dear friends,

Scoring a century is a milestone. With your good wishes many more of these would be coming as the journey , howsoever tumultuous, is not only exciting but worth as well.

I wish to use this "pause" to thank my friend Nagraj for bearing me despite differences of opinion.

Also, I fondly remember my friend, philosopher & Guide RCG who occasionally appears here to take care of me as Lalu Prasad. Above all, stands my beloved Guru Wave Rider who instead of choosing a Preferred Count among the many probables, handles them beautifully through his "hedges" and not only "scalps" but makes "killings" as well. Wish I could trade like him.

I have been emphasizing very often that trading is different from analyzing.

So far this blog has concentrated on analyzing but being a trader, my analysis --unwittingly-- gets tilted towards market-prudence and some of my "purist" friends may find this blog and my analysis non-conformist( to say the least). Basic personality, cannot be helped.

As a trader, over a period, I have come to stage where MOMENTUM gets maximum weightage in my analysis and my choice of Preferred Count also must be reflecting that.

Now, before ending this post, let me mention something which is on top in my mind:

Nifty being a basket index of 50 stocks, any positional turnaround has to come after each of the participants gets properly aligned. It is akin to all the passengers getting seated and putting on their belts before the flight takes off. This is something that is called consolidation/accumulation/distribution in technical parlance. So never be in a hurry to initiate a trade as all positional turn-arounds/ cross-overs would take a pause to allow each of the index stocks to align themselves for the new journey. In our pre-inclined states of mind, we may miss even this pause,but how many times? So everyone's time will come, just keep the mind open & alert.

Raghu

Nifty EOD 7.12.2011

W1=4639-4866=227

W2=4866-4755=111

W3=4755-5099* and should do a minimum of 5122(=1.62*W1) to max 5720(=4.25*W1) in 5 sub waves:

And lets try observing the Hour Chart for more clues:

As the above probability has the lacuna of 3rd wave not having the expected sharpness & up-momentum,following probability may also be considered:


As mentioned in the Chart,4th subwave has retraced only 21.2% of 3rd. So it also has some blemish.

So lets have a look at the Daily Charts for some clues:

With such a target and "name"[W3(iii)] we should,logically, expect a gap-up opening tomorrow.

However, today's intraday move was indicating a slowing down of up-momentum and towards the close ,the sharp downmove indicated something else. OR was this sharp downmove in the ending minutes a smart move to trigger the Stop-losses of the Longs? And thus prevent them from profits tomorrow.

Shorts should keep their SL firmly at 5100 and longs should sit pretty as their SL stands at 4916.

Raghu

EW: Some short term Trading Ideas

Two stocks where risk-reward in going long looks quite good.

May be my bullish outlook has coloured my observations so follow the Stop-Loss tightly.

Raghu

Nifty EOD 5.12.2011

W1=4639-4866=227

W2=4866-4755=111

W3=4755-5062* and should do a minimum of 5122(=1.62*W1) to max 5720(=4.25*W1) in 5 sub waves:

(i)=4755-5011=256

(ii)=5011-4916.7=95

(iii)= 4916.7 upwards likely to test min 5332[1.62*(i)=415] as a 5 wave form

4916.7-5062.55=146

5062.55-5002.55*=60(41%) ideally should have done 62% retracement as zig-zag. May still do as an expanded flat.

Raghu

Nifty:Beginning 5.12.2011

W1=4639-4866=227

W2=4866-4755=111

W3=4755-5062* and should do a minimum of 5122(=1.62*W1) to max 5720(=4.25*W1) in 5 sub waves:

(i)=4755-5011=256

(ii)=5011-4916.7=95

(iii)=4916.7-5062* likely to test min 5332[1.62*(i)=415].

As this (iii) of W3 likely to play out (minimum) 415 points, its subwaves look quite tradable and it would be worth counting them as well.

For an ideal 415 points long WAVE having 5 subwaves- an ideal formation would be:

sw1=415/2.382=175=5091,

sw2=0.618*sw1=4982

sw3=1.62*sw1=5265

sw4=0.382*sw3=5156

sw5=sw1=5331

Please remember that the above mentioned is an ideal copy-book wave.How the actual one fans out would be much more interesting.

Best of luck for today's trades.

Raghu

Nifty:EOD 2.12.2011

Yesterday I had written:

Q

But once the bears have been trapped,will they be allowed breathing space so soon?

UnQ

And rest is history.

So today,I am preferring to count it as a fresh upwave from 4639 (not a retracement ABC but a fresh Upwave with 5 subwaves):

W1=4639-4866

W2=4866-4755

W3=4755-5060* in play as a 5 wave form:Minimum Target:5285

(i)=4755-5011

(ii)=5011-4917

(iii)=4917-5060*

And for some time to come,4917 shall form a barrier /support for all downmoves.

What shall happen to the downmove from 5400?

-Its hugely extended SW3(=5326-4639) seems to have subsumed the SW4 & SW5 within it.

So broadly,I am taking this higher degree Corrective from 6339(started from Diwali 2010) to be over at 4639 and we are now in a long-term up move(of course with its inherent ups & downs).

Criticisms/comments are welcome.

:-))

Raghu

Nifty:EOD 1.12.2011

Or
Till C does not become more than 1.62*A we should not say W1,W2,W3 but in a zig-zag typically C=A;

If A=4639-4865=226

B=4865-4755=110

C=4755-5011*=256

So we better label it ABC.

But once the bears have been trapped,will they be allowed breathing space so soon?

Your guess is as good as mine----

So lets see how this ABC has progressed:

So I am labelling this A = 4639-4865 as a diagonal with extended 5th subwave;

B=4865-4755 as a zig zag;

C= 4755-5011* as a 5 wave with a gap-up which is not allowing us fractals to see whether 5 waves have been completed.But I am counting it as having completed 4 waves:

4755-4851=96

4851-4779=73

4779-5011=232

5011-4917*=94(5011-4952-4975-4917)

If this subwave 4th of C is over at 4917 then we may go up by 96 points to complete C;

or

If C is already over at 5011 we may keep sliding down( quite possible as the gap-up might have subsumed the 4th & th subwaves of C within it)

My vote goes for bulls. A SL at 4916 for all long is suggested. Shorts should keep SL at 4976.

Raghu