Trading Nifty 0n 08-05-2012

Target-1=5175(5 DMA)
Target-2=5224(20 DMA)
And in the Hourly chart below, the Stochastic(21,3) moving into Overbot zone would be assisting our EW counts---

That I am bullish now is no secret.
To me ,the march for 5690 has started as wave C
This wave C has to be an Impulse or Diagonal.

Today I shall not be able to provide updates during the market hours as I have to attend to some urgent domestic work. Also My belief is that I have done enough to illustrate the concept of Elliot Wave and how it can be useful in day-to-day trading also. So gradually, I wish to withdraw ---- to give more time to my own trading and to learn some more concepts like Gann calculations as I believe there are not much studies .other than Gann, which analyse time action.

9.45 AM

off for the day now---
Best of luck !!!
Raghu

1.45 PM

I want all of you to concentrate on how the counts co-relate with indicaters----
Look at the 5 min charts above--- until & unless we learn to co-relate the momentum studies with our EW counts, we shall not succeed as traders.
I am committed to this blog--shall be available to guide--- donot worry--- concentrate on learning and earning---

3.20 PM
First day of my Bull picture and convictions are getting tested to the full.
Usually an impulse does not get retraced by more than 80% though theoretically it can retrace 99.9%
15 min charts gave me an answer.
5th subwave of Impulse 4988-5124 got truncated today at 5115.

4988 goes so does this this Count--into dust bin.

EOD:
I have to find an answer to the followinhg question:

My labeling of yesterday's upmove from 4988-5124 as an Impulse was Incorrect( what can be the alternative?)
And then there is this Price-RSI diversion to be looked into:

See you all later--

Raghu

Trading Nifty on 07-05-2012

Going by the way Asian markets have opened,we are likely to open with a gap-down.
Continuing with yesterday's EOD post:
when Ya=5342-5154=188
Yb=5154-5279
Yc can maximum do 1.61xYa=302= 4977
Other probables are(all Fibo exten)=1.236;1.382;1.5 x Ya=5046;5019;4997

Now a very valid point is, what if we go below 4975?:
Markets are supreme, and we can not "limit" it into our labels.
Then what's the point of labelling,counting & learning EW?
-- Labelling is one of the means of listing Probabilities --nothing more than that. When our labels succeed it leads to fat purses and even when they fail, that cut short our losses.

So our labels of A=4351-5629=1098
B retracing the A as WXY where the last leg Y cannot go below 4977 would become invalid if we go below 4977.
And to see a Count (which has been helping us trace Nifty for last four months) go invalid would be quite a shocker.I'm mentioning it because it is this FEAR FACTOR that we keep on talking about but fail to win(most of the time).
Whether it is really the time to "sell & go away"
or
"once in an year opportunity" ?


What lays in future, nobody knows but I am ready with my list of stocks to make some delivery based buyings. Are you ready?

9.30 AM
Breakout above day's high of 5020 should be used for going long--with SL at day's low--- a very elementary way but should be very fruitful today--

1.15 PM
Yessssssss--

1.27 Pm
While 5 min charts have confirmed the base formation at day's low, Hour chart would do it with an hourly close above 5 Hr.EMA

1.59PM
Back to wave-counting.Also 5 Hr HEMA is 5033 closure above it gives hourly confirmation also

2.20 PM
Balle-balle-- first target met:

2.35PM

2.50 PM
Trailing Stop-loss for longs at 5051.5

I would use 200 DMA--5115--- for squaring off longs for once.
3.20 PM

Although going by the momentum in Hr chaarts,a gap up tomorrow looks very likely:

A close above 200DMA would confirm taking longs home for the night--

Trading Nifty on 04-05-2012

My preferred labels:

Now if anyone asks me to provide fractals of Yb(a)=5154-5279=125,I shall not be able to do that --- neither as a 5 wave nor as a 3 wave form.
I am taking this Yb(a) as a 5 wave form in the above labels just to ensure that my Counts donot move ahead of waves --- though going below 5179 would mean more than 80% retracement of 5154-5279 and that would weaken the above labels and once below 5165, I would prefer to treat  Yb as over at 5279 because a 90% retracement of 5154-5279-- that to by another 5 wave form(5279-5165*) should be prudently seen as a higher degree wave(in current case as sw1 of Yc). And in that scenario, I shall label as follows:

 In such a scenario, trade-setups are quite difficult and the most one can do is "scalping" 30-40 points here and there----something that should be avoided unless one is a habitual,compulsive scalper.

9.11 am
Once below 5162,minimum required for Y would be done--
Ya=5342-5154=188
Yb=5154-5279=125
Yc=5279-5162=117=0.62 of Ya

So Probability of moving up sharply also will become alive,once we go below 5162/5154.

A low of 5159.6 has been made--
Now the minimum conditions for the downmove's end have been fulfilled.
To avoid a truncated Yc,going below 5154 ( low of Ya)is necessary.
To avoid a trucated Y,going below 5136(low of W) is necessary--
Lets see if any truncations are there or we reverse from sub-5136 levels--

A breakout above day's high would be the first indication of the reversal having begun--

11.30 PM

12.00 N
Nifty making new lows but on 5 min charts,RSI not going lower---first sign of weaking momentum-- that should be used for squaring off shorts--

12.35 PM

While I have started taking long positions ---
Would be adding more around 5084(if we happen to reach there) or above 5160--

1.20 PM
As panic starts gripping,I remind myself:

An attempt at bottom catching---

2.25 PM:
Discernible waves so far:

2.53 PM

EOD:

sometimesbullsometimesbearMay 4, 2012 01:13 AM

But why not below 5069 breaking even 5000 and up to 4750 levels :):)

Very valid insertion--anything is possible. Particularly now , with a close below 200DMA such sounds would gather more momentum.

On this blog, as our main tool is EW, I can speak on the basis of my knowledge about waves---

Wave B has retraced 50% of wave A as WXY

Ya=188(5342-5154)

Yc can do upto 1.61 of Ya=302=4976-- so that way,what you say is quite possible.

But normally C=A so Yc=Ya=188 meant 5091 so EW followers like me,start looking for a reversal at these levels and sometimeswesucceedsometimeswefail----

:):)

Raghu