Trading Nifty 0n 08-05-2012

Target-1=5175(5 DMA)
Target-2=5224(20 DMA)
And in the Hourly chart below, the Stochastic(21,3) moving into Overbot zone would be assisting our EW counts---

That I am bullish now is no secret.
To me ,the march for 5690 has started as wave C
This wave C has to be an Impulse or Diagonal.

Today I shall not be able to provide updates during the market hours as I have to attend to some urgent domestic work. Also My belief is that I have done enough to illustrate the concept of Elliot Wave and how it can be useful in day-to-day trading also. So gradually, I wish to withdraw ---- to give more time to my own trading and to learn some more concepts like Gann calculations as I believe there are not much studies .other than Gann, which analyse time action.

9.45 AM

off for the day now---
Best of luck !!!
Raghu

1.45 PM

I want all of you to concentrate on how the counts co-relate with indicaters----
Look at the 5 min charts above--- until & unless we learn to co-relate the momentum studies with our EW counts, we shall not succeed as traders.
I am committed to this blog--shall be available to guide--- donot worry--- concentrate on learning and earning---

3.20 PM
First day of my Bull picture and convictions are getting tested to the full.
Usually an impulse does not get retraced by more than 80% though theoretically it can retrace 99.9%
15 min charts gave me an answer.
5th subwave of Impulse 4988-5124 got truncated today at 5115.

4988 goes so does this this Count--into dust bin.

EOD:
I have to find an answer to the followinhg question:

My labeling of yesterday's upmove from 4988-5124 as an Impulse was Incorrect( what can be the alternative?)
And then there is this Price-RSI diversion to be looked into:

See you all later--

Raghu

Trading Nifty on 07-05-2012

Going by the way Asian markets have opened,we are likely to open with a gap-down.
Continuing with yesterday's EOD post:
when Ya=5342-5154=188
Yb=5154-5279
Yc can maximum do 1.61xYa=302= 4977
Other probables are(all Fibo exten)=1.236;1.382;1.5 x Ya=5046;5019;4997

Now a very valid point is, what if we go below 4975?:
Markets are supreme, and we can not "limit" it into our labels.
Then what's the point of labelling,counting & learning EW?
-- Labelling is one of the means of listing Probabilities --nothing more than that. When our labels succeed it leads to fat purses and even when they fail, that cut short our losses.

So our labels of A=4351-5629=1098
B retracing the A as WXY where the last leg Y cannot go below 4977 would become invalid if we go below 4977.
And to see a Count (which has been helping us trace Nifty for last four months) go invalid would be quite a shocker.I'm mentioning it because it is this FEAR FACTOR that we keep on talking about but fail to win(most of the time).
Whether it is really the time to "sell & go away"
or
"once in an year opportunity" ?


What lays in future, nobody knows but I am ready with my list of stocks to make some delivery based buyings. Are you ready?

9.30 AM
Breakout above day's high of 5020 should be used for going long--with SL at day's low--- a very elementary way but should be very fruitful today--

1.15 PM
Yessssssss--

1.27 Pm
While 5 min charts have confirmed the base formation at day's low, Hour chart would do it with an hourly close above 5 Hr.EMA

1.59PM
Back to wave-counting.Also 5 Hr HEMA is 5033 closure above it gives hourly confirmation also

2.20 PM
Balle-balle-- first target met:

2.35PM

2.50 PM
Trailing Stop-loss for longs at 5051.5

I would use 200 DMA--5115--- for squaring off longs for once.
3.20 PM

Although going by the momentum in Hr chaarts,a gap up tomorrow looks very likely:

A close above 200DMA would confirm taking longs home for the night--

Nifty EOD 04-05-2012

Friday downslide and close below 200DMA has led to many people asking --"now what?"

I just wish to remind them that this is what we have been following since our failure to go above 5342.
Labelled as Y, this 3 wave form was supposed to take us below W(i.e. 5136) and going by an ideal zig-zag when Ya=5342-5154=188 this Yc was ideally supposed to take us to 5091[Yc=Ya=188].
To recall our labels:

Lets try to follow each wave as it comes--- to me it looks that we are very close to the end of B retracing A(=4531-5629=1098) as WXY--may be 5046 as the chart above shows.

Raghu

Trading Nifty on 04-05-2012

My preferred labels:

Now if anyone asks me to provide fractals of Yb(a)=5154-5279=125,I shall not be able to do that --- neither as a 5 wave nor as a 3 wave form.
I am taking this Yb(a) as a 5 wave form in the above labels just to ensure that my Counts donot move ahead of waves --- though going below 5179 would mean more than 80% retracement of 5154-5279 and that would weaken the above labels and once below 5165, I would prefer to treat  Yb as over at 5279 because a 90% retracement of 5154-5279-- that to by another 5 wave form(5279-5165*) should be prudently seen as a higher degree wave(in current case as sw1 of Yc). And in that scenario, I shall label as follows:

 In such a scenario, trade-setups are quite difficult and the most one can do is "scalping" 30-40 points here and there----something that should be avoided unless one is a habitual,compulsive scalper.

9.11 am
Once below 5162,minimum required for Y would be done--
Ya=5342-5154=188
Yb=5154-5279=125
Yc=5279-5162=117=0.62 of Ya

So Probability of moving up sharply also will become alive,once we go below 5162/5154.

A low of 5159.6 has been made--
Now the minimum conditions for the downmove's end have been fulfilled.
To avoid a truncated Yc,going below 5154 ( low of Ya)is necessary.
To avoid a trucated Y,going below 5136(low of W) is necessary--
Lets see if any truncations are there or we reverse from sub-5136 levels--

A breakout above day's high would be the first indication of the reversal having begun--

11.30 PM

12.00 N
Nifty making new lows but on 5 min charts,RSI not going lower---first sign of weaking momentum-- that should be used for squaring off shorts--

12.35 PM

While I have started taking long positions ---
Would be adding more around 5084(if we happen to reach there) or above 5160--

1.20 PM
As panic starts gripping,I remind myself:

An attempt at bottom catching---

2.25 PM:
Discernible waves so far:

2.53 PM

EOD:

sometimesbullsometimesbearMay 4, 2012 01:13 AM

But why not below 5069 breaking even 5000 and up to 4750 levels :):)

Very valid insertion--anything is possible. Particularly now , with a close below 200DMA such sounds would gather more momentum.

On this blog, as our main tool is EW, I can speak on the basis of my knowledge about waves---

Wave B has retraced 50% of wave A as WXY

Ya=188(5342-5154)

Yc can do upto 1.61 of Ya=302=4976-- so that way,what you say is quite possible.

But normally C=A so Yc=Ya=188 meant 5091 so EW followers like me,start looking for a reversal at these levels and sometimeswesucceedsometimeswefail----

:):)

Raghu

Trading Nifty on 03-05-2012

Let me start from the end of yesterday's EOD post:

Normally I initiate trade when my EW count synchronizes with the Hourly (standardized by me) charts above .
Now this chart shows:
1. Price closed below 5Hr.LEMA(5242);
2.MACD(34,5) shows a negative x-over in positive territory;
3.RSI(14) goes below 50;
4.Stoch(21,3) shows a negative x-over in overbot zone--

Thus all Momentum Indicators are clearly bearish.
And EW wise also,the Impulse 5222-5279 has been retraced upto 5226.5 i.e. 92%. Normally a retracement of more than 80% is considered to be a retracemement of higher degree(though theoretically a wave can be retraced 99.9%).

And yet I took long position in the dying minutes.
I feel, now, that it was not a very prudent thing to do as my style is to initiate a trade ONLY when all parameters are matching. Still let us see what technicals( leave aside temperamentals--though in a grinding frustrating small range mkt they did play their role) prompted me to go long:

One and only reason was my total belief that the upmove from 5154 has to complete a 3 wave zig-zag form by going above 5289 to complete the retracement of Ya=5342-5154 and that's it.
SL for longs remains at 5222 and EW guiding spirit is the following chart:

And lets have a close look at how this Yb(c) has moved so far from 5222 upwards:

Keeping Stop-loss for longs at 5222.

What if we go below 5222?
Have been staring at charts since morning to draw the Probabilities that might emerge if we tick below 5222.
Not able to crystalize any so far---

9.20 AM
So Momentum Indicaters had their say. Stop-loss has got hit-- confirming that my labels were not correct.
Would wait for some more clarity to emerge ( when labels would get in sync with Indicaters---)

While the labels for 5154-5279 remain undefined, the downmove is clearly a 5 wave:

Five wave downmove getting over:

Not only the 5min but also Hr. Charts entering oversold zone--oversold zone--  so a bounceup likely in last hour:

EOD:

Expect a green opening tomorrow to retrace 50-62% of 5 wave downmove from 5279 to 5180.

A bit disappointed as yesterday's shorting target of 5289+ could not be met so could not capitalize upon this 100 point downmove.

We may see 5240 again tomorrow before sliding below 5180. And the length of that slide would confirm our labels---- whether this downmove is Yc or still a part of Yb is playing out ---

Friday,nevertheless, would be volatile--

Raghu

Trading Nifty on 02-05-2012

Hope the opening spell shall define the label---
above 5259 would mean Yb(b) played out as a zig-zag 5262-5222 and Yb(c) started from 5222 to do minimum 0.62*Yb(a)=0.62*108=67=5289
below 5230 would mean Yb(b) continuing as some corrective combo form to be followed by Yb(c) upwards---

Fibonacci retracement levels for this Yb(wrt Ya) are indicated below. 80% retracement means 87=5222+87=5309

9.25 AM
Yb(c) in play
started from 5222 to do minimum 0.62*Yb(a)=0.62*108=67=5289

10.05 AM

so no shorts should be created before 5289 despite the 5 min charts issuing sell signals--

12.40 PM
And the grind continues--

1.25 PM
3 wave upmove from 5154 definitely not over yet:
It can not be
108
40
57

It can at the most be labelled as:
Yb(a)=5154-5262=108
Yb(b)=5262-5222=40
Yb(c)=5222---upwards as a 5 wave form(Impulse or diagonal)
(i)=5222-5279=57
(ii)=5279-5241* in progress

1.55 PM
can be long-- for intraday scalp--SL 5222

2.45 PM
By going below trendline,Yb(c) has expressed the possibility of a Diagonal Yb(c) wherein:
(i)=57
(ii)=38
(iii) above 5279 by how much cannot be said.

SL for longs can now be moved up to 5240.95

3.00PM

3.13 PM
AAAAAAAAAh--there goes my SL

Going long again

EOD:
Minimum required for Yb(c) not done yet so went long again in the dying minutes--
Although the Hour chart showing building up of downward momentum--

But incomplete Yb(c) made me go for longs again---
Not very prudent,but it happens--- lets see how we open tomorrow--