Nifty : EOD 6.01.2012

Updating the Chart in continuation with yesterday's Count:



While the day's moves were broadly in tandem with Count but the ferocity of moves particularly around 2.30PM when it moved from 4700 to 4790+ and then back to 4735 was quite rattling and even now I am not able to assign a discernible pattern to this Corrective Z.b from 4781.55 downwards(last three days)to 4686.9.
Otherwise also as Z.a=4588.15-4781.55=193.4 ,so Z.c has to be a minimum 0.62*Z.a=120;
so even if we take Z.b to be over at 4686.9,Z.c should have travelled upto 4807.

So all I can say at present is that the upmove still has some steam left and the full story of Z has yet to unfold.

Raghu

Nifty EOD 05-01-2012

Updating Chart in continuation with yesterday's Count:



And as I mentioned yesterday,Z.b can be any Corrective Pattern--ZZ or Flat or even Combo.Lets try to figure out from Intraday Charts as to how is it panning out:




The most glaring thing in the Intraday Chart of the last two days is the extremely choppy ,small-range bound sessions which may get extended to tomorrow as well.
Support Band remains 4690-4720;
Resistance Band remains around 4840.

Raghu

Nifty EOD 4-01-2012

Just updating yesterday's charts



Z.b may retrace 38.2% to 76.4% of Z.a( as mentioned yesterday).
This Z.b can be any corrective form: Zig-zag,flat or even a combo so why hazard a guess?
4690-4720 band remains a good support zone and I for one feel this Z.b would get exhausted within it to go up again as Z.c,surpassing 4800 & testing 4840.

Intraday charts present following picture:And the labelling of Z.a can either be done as 4588-4780:



or Z.a=4588-4781.55



Minimum length of Z.c=0.62*Z.a=120


Raghu

Nifty:EOD 03-01-2012

Updating from Yesterday's Charts:



Now,how to gauze & say where this Z.a would end?
In EW it is the most difficult aspect to say where W1 or A would end,particularly when discernible pauses/retracements are absent.
So I would also not hazard a guess.
And based upon the length of this Z.a only,we can infer a length for Z so that also should be deferred.
Technically, 4843 appears a good resistance zone and that is definitely going to be tested.
Z.b can retrace anything from 38.2% to 76.4% for a zig-zag Z( most likely for such an Impulsive Z.a) and technically also now 4690-4720 band would be a good support.

Nothing more to offer. Try to decipher Z.b as a 3 wave form .Right now,nothing more can be mentioned about it.

Raghu

Nifty:EOD 2.01.2012

The "Yaksh-prashna"-- whether the down move from 4800 is a 3 wave or a 5 wave-- has been indirectly answered today.So far:
SW1=4800-4672=128
4800-4751
4751-4772
4772-4685
4685-4726
4726-4672
SW2=4672-4702=30

SW3 in progress from 4702 downwards.
Had this been a fast & furious downmove,I would have called the downmove from 4800 a 5 wave Impulse.But it is too grinding & cumbersome making me inclined to treat it as a 3 wave form.
For a 3 wave (wherein this SW1,SW2 & SW3 would be labelled ABC) this SW3 has to be minimum 0.62*SW1=79=4622 .Ideally in a 3 wave C=A so SW3=SW1=128 means a target of 4574.
And this SW3 (as C)can either be a 5 wave Impulse or an Ending Diagonal.
And the best possible labelling for this SW3 from 4702-downwards (to me) is:
(i)=4702-4666=36
(ii)=4666-4695=29
(iii)=4695-4588=107
(iv)=4588-4641*
(v)to down for (may be)sub-4588
Otherwise,if 4666 gets breached on the upside then this downmove may be considered over at 4588

I am not considering the 5 wave option as for a 3rd wave,this move from 4702 down has been too cumbersome.(Though its probability would be completely ruled out only above 4702).




CONCLUSION:
Bias towards the downmove from 4800 being over at 4588. It may, at the most, make a dash below 4588 to come up again.A breach of 4666 on the upside would confirm that the downmove is over.Upward target remains 4840 as I would be counting it as XYZXZ.




Raghu

Nifty:EOD 30.12.2011

Now we have the question,posed yesterday, whether this down-move from 4800 is a 3 wave or 5 wave.It assumes more significance today as the minimum for the 3 wave-4922-was done today.
So far:
SW1=4800-4672=128
SW2=4672-4702=30
SW3=4702-4609*=93
Now this SW3(in itself) in any case has to be a 5 wave form.So lets see the Intraday Chart from 4702 downwards to figure out what form it has taken so far:



As mentioned in the chart, for a 3 wave ABC,C can very well be an Ending Diagonal and that seems to have fulfilled the minimum basic required for a 3 wave.
Then is the downmove over?
Only a breach of 4702 on the upside would confirm that and then WXYXZ count as mentioned yesterday would become our guide.

And if 4702 holds then we have to Count:
SW1=4800-4672=128
SW2=4672-4702=30
SW3= Target minimum 1.62*SW1=207=4495
(i)4702-4609=93
(ii)4609---upwards

Thus once again it is left to momentum to give us a clearer pattern.Markets have been trading in a very narrow range of 20-30 points throughout the day,making a dash --up or down -- in the last hour. Would try to devote some time to momentum studies for sharing my own readings--

Last week-end of the year 2011 is here.Trust all of you would be welcoming the new year in your own style.I wish you all a very happy ,healthy & prosperous new year with a gentle reminder towards social responsibilities. Let's all take a pledge to do something for not so lucky ones in this new year and contribute to make this world a better place to live in.

Raghu

Nifty: EOD 29.12.2011

Continuing with yesterday's updated chart:



Yesterday I wrote:
Q
On Hourly Charts the Downmove started from 4800 can be seen as:
SW1=4800-4686*
4800-4751
4751-4772
4772-4686
4686-4727
4727-4698* likely to test 4675-4680
Then SW2 upwards by 61.8%=4750
UnQ

While Nifty paused at 4672 and moved up but instead of going upto 4750,remained limited to 4702 thus retracing the minimum 23.4% instead of the optimum(for SW2)61.8%.And I take that as a sign of downward momentum and foresee a gap-down move tomorrow.
Thus we have:
SW1=4800-4672
SW2=4672-4702
SW3=4702-4639*
And as per the chart above,this SW3 should take us down to minimum 1.62*SW1
i.e.4494


But I would like to add a word of caution here.


The downmove started from 4800,after the finishing of WXY may be X(a 3-wave form) of a triple combo WXYXZ as in following Chart:




So taking a conservative view,this SW3 has the possibility of playing out even 0.62*SW1(min) and that comes to 80=4622 or optimally 4574(=SW1)

Now the common point of both the Counts is their similar direction.And I personally believe that once below 4633,4574 should be seen easily.After that the momentum play would decide the final pattern.

So I am assigning two targets for this SW3:4574 and 4494

Stop loss for Shorts tomorrow should be 4702.

Raghu