Trading Nifty on 10-04-2012

First of all,the "guiding-light" my Counts:

I would keep stop loss for longs at 5217 as going below it would invalidate the above-mentioned Count.

12.50 PM
As Nifty has ticked below 5217,the above count has become invalid.
I would wait for EOD to be in place before coming out with a fresh Count.

Raghu

Nifty : EOD 09-04-2012

So we have retraced 150(=5378-5228) of the Impulse(=5136-5378=242).
i.e. 62%

And a simple way to label this Retracement would be:

But my labels are different and I reject above labels primarily because A=73(5378-5305) is not a proper Impulse(subwave3 is not extended) as shown in chart below:

And my labels are:That only A of retracement ABC has played out so far. And this A had an extended 5th subwave:

And usually the extended 5th of A gets fully retraced by B as a 3 wave form


Raghu

Trading Nifty on 9.4.2012

I had finished my EOD 4.2.2012 post with following words:
Q
And the thresholds shown in following chart would confirm whether the Corrective is over or not. Usually this confirmation comes at the end of pre-open session itself. I have taken a long position towards the close primarily because overall trend remains upwards and nowadays intra-day positions donot generate gains as gap-ups & gap-downs have become order of the day. In case of a gap-down,longs can always be added at proper points---

Let me elaborate it further:
If we open above 5336.1,following counts would become valid:

However if we open below 5314 , following Probabilities would come to the fore:

And if we get a tick below 5278,then following Count shall become applicable:

So my trade-set up would vary accordingly.

9.08 AM: How have we opened?
End of pre-open session shows 5282.5
lets see if we test 5278---?
9.16 AM
5278 gone--

so above Count in play:

10 .00 AM Update:

where this A is likely to end? Why hazard a guess. One thing is for sure--- a tick above today's high would confirm that B has started and this B would test 5336( extended 5th of A would be fully retraced).Then one can paly long for 50 odd points or wait for 5336 zone to short again for gain of 100 off points---

10.10 AM
We can attempt to find 5 subwaves of extended 5th of A in following manner:

12.00 N

A tick above 5260 would be my first attempt to go long--- that a bottom for A at day's low--- which would become my SL for longs:

1.52 PM

As the much awaited tick above 5260 has not taken place,bottom for A still not found.

2.22 PM

Longs to have a target of 5336 and SL 5241

3.13 PM

Extended 5th of A still in play.

Has proved very deceptive.

3.25 PM

SL getting hit is not a good feeling but part of trading.

Now the point to go long is above 5267.5.

EOD

5 subwaves of 5th wave of A can be counted as follows:

So tomorrow ,we may see a gap-up.But I would advise going long only above 5267.5.

Raghu

Nifty EOD 04-04-2012

At the beginning of trading session, the 5 hr.ema chart was:

And at the close it looks like:

The Daily chart along with 5DMA & 20DMA ,at the beginning of session was:

And at the end of the session:

while the evening star has got formed[I don't know why icharts changed its colour from red to green :-D],
the long legged dozi got its support from converging 5DMA & 20DMA around 5300.
So,is the Corrective over?
- In percentage terms, we have retraced 73points(=5378-5305) of Impulse(5136-5378=242) i.e. 30.1%.
thus doing more than the minimum 23.6%. And lets try to see whether the wave-form has got completed or not?
And the thresholds shown in following chart would confirm whether the Corrective is over or not. Usually this confirmation comes at the end of pre-open session itself. I have taken a long position towards the close primarily because overall trend remains upwards and nowadays intra-day positions donot generate gains as gap-ups & gap-downs have become order of the day. In case of a gap-down,longs can always be added at proper points---

Enjoy the long week-end.

Raghu

Trading Nifty on 04-04-2012

Why downmove ?
-Because Impulse looks over at 5378.
How?
-Three reasons:
1. wave form looks complete;
2.Nifty has closed below 5hour ema showing beginning of downmove;
3.one 5 wave form to the down has been completed.

Now for the retracement to this Impulse(=5136-5378=242),likely targets are:
38.2%=5285
50%=5157
61.8%=5228
Max 80%=5184

As per EW, in case of a 5th wave extension, the retracement goes upto lower end of subwave2 of 5th wave which in this case is at 5264
Also in case of an ending diagonal, the retracement does a minimum of lower end of subwave2 of the diagonal which in this case is at 5284


Also helpful would be the 5DMA and 20 DMA which are currently at 5268 and 5295 respectively.
Incidentally, a gap down would lead to the formation of an Evening Star---

9.27 AM
Failure to do 162% by 3rd wave.
One three wave form done.
5378-5318=60=24.7% of retracement of Impulse 5136-5378=242 done as a 3 wave form.
SL for shorts at 5365 is a must.

11.50 AM

Stop loss for shorts now at 5336.1

1.25 PM

One of the probabilities---Doble zig-zag is coming to an end:

2.30 PM

Although Double Zig-zag as shown above is over, further downside's probability is still open in following form:

Enthusiastic bulls,who have already taken long position must keep a stop loss at day's low.

A tick above 5326,however would lead me into long position now--

EOD:

Have initiated longs as I believe the corrective to Impulse (=5136-5378=242) is over at 5305.35 as a double zig-zag( shown in one of the charts above.

Raghu

Trading Nifty on 3.4.2012

My guiding lights for today shall be following to charts:

while the first one tells me to keep a stop loss at 5284 for my longs and play for the last leg up for minimum 47 points-- the second one indicates that trendline that may get tested and nearby it shorts may be created.
Lets see how it opens----

9.18 AM

For Intraday play,best time to short,with SL at day's high & target 5305

9.45 AM

10.56 AM
SL got triggered---

11.45 AM

I would short at 5374 with SL at 5384--

12.30PM
Shorted. SL at day's high now.Target 5284

1.50 PM
It was very tough finding fractals of this last leg of Impulse.
SL for shorts at 5395 now.

3.05 PM

Retain shorts with SL 5365.Target 5285.

EOD:

The guiding lights with which started the day held out:

Trading Nifty on 2-4-2012

First day of the new FY.
I wish all of you best of wishes for the coming year.
And begin by invoking Lord Hanuman
" Bal-buddhi-vidya dehu mohe,
harhu kalesh-vikar"
[ O'Almighty,bless me with strength(mental & physical) and knowledge and take away my negativities so that I may put my strength & knowledge to positive usage---]

I would start with the Charts which have to be my guiding light for next few days:

And lets see how C unfolds:

12.40 PM

2.45 PM

EOD

As 5340 remained untested,wave has not got completed.
Tomorrow opening may show us 5340+ before beginning the retracement.

Raghu