And the Journey continues----

It all started by chance.

My inconsistencies in stock market trades led me to interactions on mmb—a forum provided by Moneycontrol.com (which I have not visted even once during last one year—such was the bad taste left--)

By why recall bad part?

It was mmb that got a group of obsessive people together --- RCG,Harshal,Nagraj,Sanjay Bhatia,Guna Sekar, SF,UPS,Sunny and many more---- all attracted by magnetism of one man called WINWATH.

And what a group we made--- our technical discussions seemed to have disturbed some people and  the resultant circumstances led to Nagraj floating this blog ---providing an “alternative” forum to our raw energies and discussions.

And one year has passed –Nagraj went to Spain and has chosen to give priority to his MBA and career thereafter, Harshal went to Colombo and has found out that there is more to life ,RCG aka Lalu Prasad –the ever young septuagenarian—and Sunny the Charming Tiger chose to contribute more on FB group and WINWATH?

My Guru WINWATH or WW as we call him lovingly, has no limits----

From A to Z of all stocks, fundamental to government, he has his hands full always—how could he remain limited to a blog---? Occasionally appearing here as Waverider, he would tell me now & then that “ O’ boy !! I am around---

And thus one year passed.

I donot know how many people “learnt” Elliot Wave Principle from my blog but with page-views exceeding 2000 per day,I am sure hundreds have heard the name of Elliot Waves. And that is akin to a seed being sown ---

I feel more confident with my trades. And have started doing much better as a trader---

So have chosen to take this journey to the next destination ---

and in this part of the journey it will be trades & trades all the way --

in  new vehicles------

Raghuvanshi's Reality Show ---- http://raghu1965.blogspot.com/

Jackpot Trades  --------http://sanjayraghuvanshi.blogspot.in/  

And this post may very well be my last post on this blog address.

While Raghuvanshi's Reality Show  is an attempt to showcase how starting from Rs.100,000/-(rupees one lac only) we can start trading and to find out REAL TIME how much money can be made in a year from this initial capital.This blog, therefore, would be all about Trades initiated & closed with occasional discussions on various trade anatomies.
Jackpot Trades is conceptualised more as a blog for learners where detailed analysis of Nifty and a few other stocks would be done and proper entry/exit points would be located and explained.
Both these blogs are  open for  Viewers but comments section is closed. Feedbacks, if any, may be sent to me on email id mentioned below.

Sanjay Raghuvanshi

contact me at sanjayraghuvanshi1965@gmail.com

Nifty on 09-08-2012

http://raghu1965.blogspot.in/2012/08/anatomy-of-trade.html
(iss anjuman me aapko aana hai baar-baar----- deewaaro-dar ko gaur se pehchaan leejiye)
2.30 Pm

EOD

Had written in the morning:
Q
Depending upon how the news/sentiment etc develop,this 5iv & 5v may not see light of the day at all--and we would see Nifty coming down to 5246(minimum) to announce end of 5th at 5376. Probability of 5iv ending at 5310-5315 and then 5v again going to 5380 is also alive.
UnQ

And based upon this,decided to close all my shorts once Nifty went below 5315.

Now the question is:
Was it 5iv and 5v would go up?
or was it a retracement of 5=5165-5376 and likely to go below 5246 .

I cannot say---and the way it kept hovering in the channel shown above, it also deliberately was hiding that answer. This channel's break would announce the next move---

And our trade initiation would not be this channel break--it would be the outer channel that would lead me into fresh trade:

Raghu

PS: For further details please log on to my new blog:
http://raghu1965.blogspot.in/2012/08/anatomy-of-trade.html

Nifty on 08-08-2012

In focus would be:

And look for negative divergence on Hour charts for reversals.
10.15 AM
Time to short with SL at day's high
Ist target should be 5264(the boundary line of last gap-up which also happens to be 5 DMA
12.36 PM

4.30 PM

Had to leave immediately after posting the above chart.
And now on coming back I find the ending almost as visualised in the morning,though from 1-3PM it was quite volatile.Phew---

Analysing Failure

Which failure?
Yes,there have been many during this upmove of 5033-5350*
And behind all these failures was only one reason. This upmove was  seen as a retracement of 5348-5033 --either as abc or as WXY--- with the result that instead of looking for opportunities to go long, I was looking for the opportunity to go short. The only long call given was on EOD 26.7.2012 with a target of 5160(from the low of 5033) and it was that one good correct call that has kept the August balance sheet in green----
The pattern being followed was:

And based on this pattern, I was looking for opportunities to short as soon as we crossed 5160. And all of them saw stop loss getting triggered.
And today,when 5348 itself has got breached, we have to put the downmove 5348-5033  in focus and try to figure out where the fault lies.

This downmove of 5348-5033 was seen as a 5 wave Impulse in following way:

(i)=5348-5218=130

(ii)=5218-5267=49
(iii)=5267-5076=191 has very clear fractals:
5267-5169=98
5169-5257=88
5257-5108=149
5108-5144=36
5144-5076=68
(iv)=5076-5126=50
(v)=5126-5033=93 
Thus (iii) was extended vis-a-vis (v)

Now the above labels have only one minor aberration that both (ii) and (iv) are shallow retracements. But the shallowness of (ii) has been compensated by deep subwave2 of (iii).

Some of my friends had been suggesting it as a zig-zag abc in following manner:

But even today, when we have come above 5348, I fail to understand how it can be a zig-zag like this when its a=5348-5172 is a 3 wave form? Or should we start considering zig-zags as 3x3x5 forms also? And if we have to go by "visible" wave forms then current scenario would look something like this:

In the end,the most prudent answer that I give to myself is---- we have to follow the correct guidelines,market may or may not follow it. 

Also, over-reliance on EW may have its own pitfalls so better to find other TA supports as well.

Raghu

Nifty on 07-08-2012

Elliot Wave Pattern:

Trendline Resistance:

Hourly Momentum:
Small divergence noticed in Hour charts RSI-14:
Nifty top-5291.25(RSI-14=69.45)-at 11.00 hrs
Nifty top -5293.15(RSI-14=69.34)-at 15.00 hrs

And on the basis these three, the most logical trade for me would be to short with a SL at 5314.
Why 5314?
Ya=5154.25-5246.3=92.05
Yb=5246.3-5164.8=81.5
Yc can be max 1.618xYa=149=5164.8+148.95=5313.75

And a look at the most talked about stock of yesterday----RELIANCE

10.35 AM
As per hourly  L/H calculations, the EW counts mentioned above have become invalid with breach of 5214.
However,as a confirmation,I would wait for an Hourly close at 11.00AM to confirm this invalidation.

11.05 AM
Time for me to be out of action--- shall be on the sidelines to understand the new pattern.However,I have not yet let go off my shorts as I expect the trendline to act as a resistance and overbot Hourly will force a dip--that would be the best time to off load shorts.
EW counts,though,have been invalidated. 
Came out of shorts--- as the two trendlines resistance have been broken.

11.34 AM
A dip had to come---but only when I let my shorts go---
I still believe the Hourly overbot have to cool off before making further upmove--- and this cool off in what manner and upto what point I cannot say now as my EW counts have been thrown into dustbin---

12.10 PM
Today morning,premarket,I had given three reasons for shorting:
EW wise--count has got invalidated.
Trendline--has been breached(currently we are into 4th Hour candle above that trendline.
Divergence in Hour chart--non-existent in today's fresh highs.

So on all three parameters shorts are ruled out.
Then should we go long---?
I would give myself some more time before answering that--
In my trading style--though not infallible as demonstrated many times including today-- buying at break-outs is not preferred. Instead  I prefer to buy at supports when Hourly is oversold and similarly I prefer to sell at resistance where Hourly is overbot.
So I am not attempting to go long--
1.26 PM
Looking for next trendline resistance,daily charts show that he trendline from the two tops--6339-5630 is very close, somewhere around 5360

And that gives me my fresh labels:

And the following channel may indicate beginning of 4th subwave of (v) to take us to 5280 again:

2.36 PM
This is how ideally the fractals of (v)--an extended (v)--should take place

But notice that there has been no divergence negative divergence vis-a-vis RSI so far.
So it is more likely that we would straight-away hit 5360-5365 where the Trendline joining previous two tops at 6339-5630 is currently running.

And in the chart above,please donot miss the Price-RSI divergence---Nifty has gone above previous high of 5348 but RSI has not breached its previous high.
3.05 PM
5 min charts indicating negative divergence:

EOD:
Close to a very Important trendline--- but the correct time to create shorts --my indication being a negative divergence on Hourly charts--did not appear today--- EW wise,would like to delve deeper one of the Probabilities now is a Leading Diagonal from 4770--
4770-5124=354
5124-5017=107
5017-5348=331
5348-5033=315
5033-5350*=317

And as per this Probability we should not go above 5364---somewhere the above mentioned TL is running presently.

In view of Trendline,upside looks limited now---
But no negative divergence appeared on Hour chart today. Tomorrow we may go above 5350 again and if RSI fails to make a new high,that should be the point to short, with a tenative Stop-loss at 5365( going by above EW probability).
With these thoughts I would close today's diary.

Raghu 

Trading Nifty on 06-08-2012

I had started Friday morning with following pattern:

And my words were:

Q

An Intraday pull back of 60-odd points can again bring us up in 5240 zone--- to complete B(c) and in view of the negative sentiments developed overnight,I would not be surpised if the last subwave(v) of B(c) remains truncated i.e. doesnot go above the high of subwave(iii) i.e. 5246.
So the B wave from 5033 upwards gets labelled as:
B(a)=5033-5150=117
B(b)=5150-5078=72
B(c) in play from 5078 upwards and cannot do more than 1.618xB(a)=5267 and so the likelihood of its playing out as a diagonal is very high:
(i)=5078-5218=140
(ii)=5218-5154=64
(iii)=5154-5246=92
(iv)=5246-5210* in play
 and (v) yet to play out.

So a gap-down to 5180 and then a rise to 5250 and then beginning of larger downmove as C to sub 5000 --this is how I am seeing the August series fanning out. 150DMA at 5164 may very well be today's downpoint. And please donot forget that 5267 is the upperboundary for these labels.

UnQ

And Nifty did exactly that---- found support at 5164.8 and then moved up----

Then why my blog visitors like Kunal Seth are angry with me?

May be because these labels donot foresee Nifty going above 5257 and in view of good upmoves in American and European Markets, some people feel that I have cheated them and blame me for being wrong 8 out of 10 times.

I just wish to state that my endeavour is to share in detail my thought process as an Elliot Wave follower and trader. And I never claim to be s super-man. I am as fallible as anyone else in this market.

And as far as making or losing money is concerned, my new blog at Jackpot Trades and the REALITY SHOW therein is meant to bring forth that aspect only.

So keep watching---"Haath kangan ko aarsi kya---will shall very soon have the evidence.

Now let me get back to business:

This pattern was guided by EW principle that a 5 wave Impulse is followed by a 3 wave Corrective(or a combination of correctives) which normally retrace 38.2% to 80% of the Impulse,though theoretically a retracement upto 99.9% of Impulse is possible.

As the above principle makes it very clear--- a good band of length(38-99.9%) and several corrective forms are probable for this upmove. And that makes the work of any EW follower quite tough--- as we have noticed while moving up.

One probability was --- this up move could have ended at 5218 as a simple zig-zag B corrective in following way.

And though we did go down from 5218 but turned up from 5155 to continue upwards.

So the current probability of B(c) fanning out as a Diagonal instead of simple Impulse was considered.

As a diagonal also B(c) is not allowed a move beyond 5257 because:

c1=5078-5218=140

c2=5218-5155=63

c3=5154-5246=92

c4=5246-5165=81

c5= can not do more than c3 so max length possible is 5165+92=5257.

Thus above 5257 this Probability will also become invalid.

But will that make EW invalid or will that make my illustrations laughable?

May be to some. 

But not to me. My endeavour is to follow the market on daily basis and initiate trades wherever a Probability appears. If that probability becomes a reality,I earn money.If it becomes invalid,then my stop losses get triggered.And that's how it will remain for all times to come.

Now lets concentrate on next Probability (if tomorrow we get a gap-up above 5257).

It will not be a rush up to 5350 and beyond----

Because it is the B wave in play and its move above 5257 would tell us that instead of a simple zig-zag form,it is fanning out as a combination of correctives--WXY- wherein

W=5033-5218=185

a=5033=5150=117

b=5150-5078=72

c=5078-5218=140

X=5218-5154=64

a=5218-5174=44

b=5174-5206=32

c=5206-5154=52

Y=5154-5220*and likely to go above 5257

a=5154-5246=92

b=5246-5165=81

c= 5165---upwards and how much above 5257?

If c=a=92 then it points to 5165+92=5257

but c can go as much as 1.618*a=149=5313.

And the pattern in that case would look something like this:

As this range of 5258-5313 looks quite large, let me put in some extra effort to further fine tune it.

There exists a gap--5267-5300.

So if 5267 is breached,5300 would be the perfect point to short with Stop-loss at 5314.

Thus it combines two factors:
1. EW
2.Trendline

My third factor, divergence on momentum charts, should be noticed first in 5 min charts and then in Hour charts to pick up the best shorting point near 5300.

Lets see which Probability becomes a reality--- B doing an abc till 5257 or B doing a WXY above 5257.
Whichever Probability occurs, I am looking forward to C downwards giving me good gains. 


And yes,please do see my post on Hindalco in Jackpot Trades.
2.39 PM
Pl notice the negative divergence that has appeared in the 5 min charts. While Nifty scaled new heights at 5292+ but momentum indicaters failed to cross previous highs.
This completes the third factor that I follow before initiating trades.
 Nifty is likely to test 5300 and if this negative divergence persists,that would be the best time to short with a SL at 5314.

EOD

Finally decided to bifurcate the new blog.
Reality Show would be "open"--- pl find the link on the top right hand side corner.
Jackpot Trades would be for invitees only.

Let us keep the journey smooth.

Raghu 

Why not make the new blog "OPEN"?

Thanks to the enthusiastic response from my friends--some of them have given very encouraging feedbacks-- the list of Invitees to the new blog has gone more than one hundred.
And the Blogspot administration says you can have at the most 100 invitees including the blogger.
Am in a fix but in no mood to go "open".

While emails of new posts in the blog would be sent to the enlisted invitees automatically,updates on previous pages would be not informed.So please look for updates in the seperate pages--particularly stocks--occasionally.

For the requests over and above the permitted number,I would be adding them in google circles to send emails seperately.
Enjoy your week-ends.
http://sanjayraghuvanshi.blogspot.in/2012/08/reality-show-from-rs100000-to-in-year.html

SSR